5-15; -11.87pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt unless stated):

Daniel Chopra to beat Rod Pampling -107 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 2
With rounds of 70-75 in the last four years around the Palmer Course at PGA West, Pampling looks another player to oppose on this course; Glover's four rounds have all been 70 or less

Mark Hensby to beat Rod Pampling +150 @ VCbet and BlueSq  [0.5pts]  WON by 2
Will also oppose Pampling with Hensby whose record around the Palmer Course may not be as good as that of Chopra, but he is a significantly better player in windier conditions

Round 2 plays (1pt):

Joe Ogilvie to beat Stephen Leaney -120 @ Five Dimes WON by 8
Both have played the Palmer Course at PGA West in each of the last four years, Ogilvie averaging 68.00 and Leaney 72.25 and Ogilvie beating Leaney around that course by at least 3 shots every time

Daniel Chopra to beat Robert Allenby -125 @ Carib  LOST by 5
A couple of 67s around the Classic Course for Chopra provides hope of a recovery today and Allenby is a player who rarely does recover well in round 2 from such a lowly leaderboard position

Nathan Green to beat Robert Allenby -115 @ Pinnacle LOST by 6
Will also oppose Allenby with Green who is in 23rd position, so is much more positive heading into today and beat Allenby by two shots on their debuts on the Classic Course last year

Mike Weir to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 6
Both players have played La Quinta in each of the last four years, but Weir averages 2.75 shots lower around this course

Eric Axley to beat Lee Janzen -115 @ Five Dimes WON by 6
Janzen has been in a similar position only once in the last couple of years - he was 3rd after the opening round of the 2007 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am -  he shot 81 in the 2nd round en route to missing the cut!

Round 3 plays (1pt)

Anthony Kim to beat Todd Hamilton -155 @ Pinnacle and Carib  WON by 9
Short odds, but Hamilton was in a similar position after two rounds on three occasions and last year and shot 80-77-77 in the third round

Tommy Gainey to beat Ryan Moore +195 @ Unibet  TIED (Loss)
Moore deserves to be favourite, but not to this degree (e.g. he ranks 31st in greens in regulation this week, whereas Moore is 102nd)

Troy Matteson to beat Chad Campbell +115 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1
Both well outside the cut line as Matteson was two years ago. On that occasion he shot 65 in the third round and ended in 24th place. No reason to expect he is less likely to bounce back today - he outranks Campbell in drving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation so far

Round 4 plays (1pt)

Tim Herron to beat Joe Durant +140 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 3
Herron has no chance of making the cut, but that doesn't mean that he won't try today. When in a similar position after round 1 of a normal event, he has shot 70 or better in 8 of his last 9 events. He is widely available at +125 but with ties lose, so the value is with Five Dimes

Nick Flanagan to beat Fred Couples +125 @ Ladbrokes  LOST by 4
Five Dimes are right to price Flanagan -145 in this matchup, so I'll gladly take a chance on ties losing with this price on the far better player

Dean Wilson to beat Rich Beem +105 @ The Greek  LOST by 13
Another case of backing the better player with odds-against even though there is a loss with a tie

Yong-Eun Yang to beat Dustin Johnson -125 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 6
Could be a test of character for Johnson after looking so promising, but then recording five bogeys in six holes at the end of his round yesterday; Yang looks as though he belongs on this Tour

Round 5 plays (1pt)

Lucas Glover to beat Chad Campbell -110 @ Carib  LOST by 2
Both players only just made the cut, but they differ in how they respond when in a similar postion in the final round. Over the last 3 years, Glover has averaged 69.67 in the final round (including 66 from a similar position in this event in 2006); Campbell has averaged 72.44 and failed to beat 72 in any of his last eight attempts

Charley Hoffman to beat Ryan Moore -110 @ Carib  LOST by 1
Siding with the better player who will be extra motivated to finish well being the defending champion

D.J. Trahan to beat Robert Gamez +100 @ Pinnacle  WON by 9
Gamez did win the 2005 Texas Open from this position, but hadn't broken 70 when in 2nd/3rd position with one round to play since 1997; Trahan's final round scores when in this position read 65-74-69-66

Scott McCarron to beat Michael Letzig +105 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1
Will gladly take these odds on the Sacramento native. This is his first PGA Tour appearance for 19 months, so I can't see any letdown in terms of effort even though he is well down the leaderboard