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Betfair Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Chris

Odds:Betfair

 
 
Bob Hope Chrysler Classic
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This season I will be providing tips for Betfair - a name which has become synonymous with betting exchanges. There are of course other betting exchanges, but Betfair has the vast majority of the liquidity - certainly for golf markets - so it will be the source of prices used in the tips here.
 
 Betting exchanges allow us the opportunity to ‘lay' or oppose players, and that is primarily the form the tips on this page will take.
 
 The staking plan is based on a 200pt starting bank, and initially at least I will be looking to risk no more than 10% of the bank in any one week. I believe that in the early weeks of the year the natural enthusiasm for the new season needs to be tempered with some restraint as results can be somewhat unpredictable until form patterns have settled down.
 
 I intend to post tips before the start of the week's event either on the Wednesday or Thursday. Then where the opportunity presents itself there may be further tips to follow between the rounds during the event.

Before round 1: 

LAY Mike Weir to lose 20pts @16.5  (i.e. stake 1.29pts)
LAY Chad Campbell to lose 20pts @24  (i.e. stake 0.87pts)
LAY Justin Leonard to lose 20pts @21  (i.e. stake 1pts)
LAY Daniel Chopra to lose 20pts @38  (i.e. stake 0.54pts)
LAY Charley Hoffman to lose 20pts @65  (i.e. stake 0.31pts)
LAY Troy Matteson to lose 20pts @50  (i.e. stake 0.41pts)
LAY Mark Calcevecchia to lose 20pts @70  (i.e. stake 0.29pts)
LAY Chris DiMarco to lose 20pts @75  (i.e. stake 0.27pts)
LAY Shigeki Maruyama to lose 20pts @100  (i.e. stake 0.2pts)
LAY George McNeill to lose 20pts @70  (i.e. stake 0.29pts)
LAY Joe Durant to lose 20pts @100  (i.e. stake 0.2pts)
LAY Jeff Quinney to lose 20pts @90  (i.e. stake 0.22pts)

A number of past winners of this event here, and others with various claims, but once again it comes down to taking an opinion on price and I feel these lays are all on the right side of value.

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Update after round 1: 

LAY John Senden to lose 20pts @42  (i.e. stake 0.49pts)
LAY Robert Gamez to lose 20pts @48  (i.e. stake 0.43pts)

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Update after round 2: 

LAY Brett Rumford to lose 20pts @48  (i.e. stake 0.43pts)

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Update after round 3: 

The lays of Leonard and Gamez have clearly not turned out too well, and at this stage I think damage limitation is the order of the day.

BACK Justin Leonard to win 15pts @3.6  (i.e. stake 5.77pts)
BACK Robert Gamez to win 16.5pts @5.7  (i.e. stake 3.51pts)

This leaves an overall position of:

The field: -2.04pts

J Leonard: -2.27pts

R Gamez: -2.46pts

There are still outside risks from Rumford and perhaps Weir or Quinney but not sufficient liquidity to get out of the positions at a reasonable price. If any have a strong round 4 then I will look to reduce the positions on them.

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Update after round 4: 

BACK Brett Rumford to win 19pts @100  (i.e. stake 0.19pts)

This leaves a position of: 

The field: -2.23pts

J Leonard: -2.46pts

R Gamez: -2.65pts

B Rumford: -3.47pts