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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds:Spreads

 
 
Bob Hope Chrysler Classic
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Buy Justin Leonard FP at 29 with Sporting Index BetHiLo for 0.5 Pts M/U 2, Loss 13.5 Pts
A popular outright bet with some this week, but when you look at his region form it suggests sub 30 for his FP quote is too low. Last year he missed the cut in this event due to failing to break 70 all 4 days and his form in California, which is arguably more realistic than just course form due to their being two new courses on the rota, shows one win (here, 2005) and no other Top 30s in 8 stroke play starts. He also failed to get past R1 of the Matchplay in La Costa in two attempts.

Buy Boo Weekley FP at 41 with Sporting Index BetHiLo for 0.5 Pts M/U 9, Loss 16 Pts
Some players on this tour can have superior or inferior form in certain states or regions, a "superior" example being Zach Johnson who has won 3 times in Georgia. An example of inferior form comes from Boo who, in 5 Californian starts, has yet to make a cut and has only broken 70 once in 14 rounds. He missed last weekend at the Sony and all in all he should be a little higher given that his average over 2007 in all starts was 3 points higher than his buy price this week.

Sell Fred Couples over Nick Flanagan R1 18H MB at 1 with
 IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -13 Profit 3.5 Pts
The romantic view here is that Couples comes back to the main tour for the first time since last April's Masters and performs to a level that replicates a good record in this event and a fair Californian record overall. However, his appearances have been restricted to three starts since August 2006 and his record in his last seven starts shows two withdrawals, a disqualification and 3 missed cuts. Therefore, logic would suggest that Couples may at least need 18 holes under his belt before he can start shooting the figures that will see him contend again. He faces Flanagan who is the underdog basically on the fact he missed last week's Sony cut and who has failed to finish in the Top 50 in 6 starts. However, there is so many question marks over Couples that I feel Flanagan should start at "choice" at the very least.
(Please note the price is also available at Sporting Index and Spreadex, but IG have a promotion on which will be useful to take part in. see the following link - https://www.igsport.com/content/investors_golf.html )

R2

Buy Joe Durant FP (post R1) at 26 with
IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 40.5, Profit 7.25 Pts
With this being a 5 round tournament there is a lot that can happen yet, and with Durant only 5 strokes ahead of the cut line, a poor round tonight could see him easily back in the pack. He won this event in 2001 and has only missed one cut since, but 26 is too low for a tournament with 72 holes left and a mix of various course types to encounter.

Sell Fred Couples over Nick Flanagan R2 18H MB at 1 with Sporting Index BetHiLo for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 5 Pts
Couples performed better than I thought he would yesterday, but so did Flanagan, and its a surprise to see the same price available today, albeit with another firm. No reason not to play again, although do not take any less than 1.

R3

Buy Justin Leonard FP at 11 for 0.5 Pts (available generally) M/U 2, Loss 4.5 Pts
For much the same reason as the bet on Durant, this price is too low. It does mean that we have a full point staked on Leonard, but at a nett price of 20. There is still 54 holes left in this event and he has 2 rounds at the host course to go. I'd price him at 15 personally so 11 can't be ignored just because we are already on at higher. 

6 Bets, 3 Wins, 3 Losses -18.25 Pts. I must admit to being more disappointed by the Weekley loss, as he had shown nothing to suggest he would contend in this event and even after R2 was odds on to be a winning bet. Leonard's two prices were excellent value that just didn't come good for us.