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9-8; +0.70pts
Round 1 plays (1pt):
Steve Marino to beat Kevin Na -110 @ Five Dimes WON by 2 Better history in this event and a 14-6 first round head-to-head record over the last year points to a Marino victory
Stewart Cink to beat Stuart Appleby -130 @ Five Dimes LOST by 1 Similar story here: much better record in this event and a 9-3-3 first round head-to-head record over the last year in favour of the selection
Tim Clark to beat Stephen Ames +125 @ Carib LOST by 3 Ames has been very impressive so far this year, but he is worth opposing at this price given his record in this event: in six attempts he has yet to finish in the top-40; Clark's record reads 12th-mc-10th
Round 2 plays (1pt):
Charley Hoffman to beat Troy Matteson -113 @ Pinnacle WON by 3 Jeff Quinney to beat Troy Matteson -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 4 Opposing Matteson who played superb golf yesterday under the radar. This time he plays with Tiger Woods looming large in his mirror and on the opposite side of the course as well. Given that he has never previously led a Tour event after the 1st round, he will do very well to stay in the lead
Mark Calcavecchia to beat D.J. Trahan -110 @ Five Dimes LOST by 6 Both played the South Course yesterday and are currently outside the cut line. Calc is one shot closer to the mark and should be the more focussed than Trahan who could easily coast to a weekend off after his amazing win last week
Joe Durant to beat John Rollins -111 @ Unibet WON by 1 After hitting just 7 fairways and 11 greens in regulation yesterday around the North Course, Rollins could really struggle around the tougher course today. There is only a one-shot buffer between him and the cut line and the pressure should be on today
Ryan Moore to beat Sean O'Hair -105 @ Pinnacle LOST by 2 Moore was in a similar position last week after an opening 75 left him 124th, but he shot 64 in the second round and eventually finished 5th. He should be encouraged by that and is far more likely to rebound from yesterday than O'Hair who looks set to miss the cut for the fourth consecutive year
Round 3 plays (1pt):
J.B. Holmes to beat George McNeill -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 3 Backing Holmes who ranks 5th in 3rd round scoring average over the last months against McNeill who ranks 73rd and over 1 1/3 shots higher
Bubba Watson to beat Sean O'Hair +103 @ Five Dimes LOST by 1 O'Hair has never previously made the cut in this event and struggled to 76 around this course on day 1; Watson has finished 56th and 4th and shot 71 around here yesterday
Hunter Mahan to beat Charles Howell -103 @ Pinnacle LOST by 2 A big difference in 3rd round scoring here as well: Mahan averages 69.89 over the last 12 months; Howell 71.94
Jeff Quinney to beat Nathan Green -105 @ WSEX [-106 @ Pinnacle] WON by 2 And here: Quinney averages 70.18 and Green 71.14
Rory Sabbatini to beat Phil Mickelson +105 @ Carib LOST by 2 Plenty of value here with Mickelson 11 shots off the pace, making his 2008 Tour debut and physically unwell at the start of the week
Ryuji Imada to beat Camilo Villegas +113 @ Pinnacle WON by 1 These should be pick'em at best. This is first time that Villegas has made the cut in three attempts on this course, whereas Imada has made the cut in all three previous attempts and improved his finishing position every time; he could easily do that again from this position
Round 4 plays (1pt)
Dustin Johnson to beat Tim Herron +105 @ Five Dimes WON by 4 The rookie has finished 10th and 12th in two PGA Tour starts this year, so I see no reason why he can't beat Herron who has beaten par around the South Course just once in his last thirteen attempts
Stewart Cink to beat Aaron Baddeley -103 @ Five Dimes WON by 3 Similar record for Baddeley: in 15 attempts, he has yet to beat 70 around the South Course, whereas Cink has done it twice this week already. Cink may be paired with Tiger in the last round, but it is hardly a pressure situation
Matt Jones to beat John Mallinger -108 @ Pinnacle TIED Finishes of 17th and 29th this year show that Jones has made a good transition from the Nationwide Tour, so he deserves favouritism against Mallinger
Bill Haas to beat Troy Matteson +103 @ Five Dimes LOST by 4 Matteson is clearly the better player, but it is difficult to see Matteson rebounding from the problems that he has had over the last couple of days