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Buy Justin Leonard FP at 39 with Sporting IndexBetHiLo for 0.5 Pts. M/U 5, Loss 17 Pts Another play against Leonard who this week comes to an event where he has yet to see the weekend in 3 starts. Like a lot of players he is here because the course will be used twice on tour this year as its the US Open venue in June. Although the course won't be as difficult as it will be in June, it will be tricked up more than usual and with Leonard having an average US Open record there is nothing to suggest the trickier set-up will play into his hands. Obviously, current form is a major factor in the price but as we stated last week, Leonard has little form in this state, and the form he does have is at the Bob Hope, something he unfortunately found again to cost us last week. This week, it is only current form that is a worry but the last time he put together 3 big weeks in a row was in 2004. Worth a buy at anything up to 41.
Sell Hunter Mahan over Brandt Snedeker R1 18H MB at 1 with IG Sportfor 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 3 Pts Snedeker doesn't seem to come with the reputation that the likes of his opponent tomorrow have and because of that we get the chance to support him with a 1pt start in this 2 ball. H2H's in 2007 show a 12-7-3 tournament lead and 11-9-2 R1 lead.Course form shows a 3rd place last year (started with a 61 on the North Course against Mahan's 1 cut made in 4, and that only leading to a 56th place finish). Current form sees Mahan place 5th in Hawaii at the Mercedes but Snedeker was only 2 shots behind, however Snedeker did fail to make the cut the following week but only just.
Sell Charles Howell over Nick Watney R1 18H MB at 1 with Sporting IndexBetHiLofor 0.25 Pts M/U 25, Loss 6 Pts Howell is a popular choice with course form from last year but in two events this year he has finished 8th at the Mercedes, where Watney beat him by 1 shot in 5th, and he missed the Sony cut, on the same mark as Snedeker, where he was also strongly fancied. It is arguable that Watney is in better current form, albeit sparse for both. Watney was 9th here last year 4 shots behind Howell and although Howell wins on course form there is very little between them on long term stats. I wouldn't take less than 1 in this match or the one above but 1 is value.
Buy Brett Rumford over Richard Johnson R1 18H MB at 4 with IG Sportfor 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Profit 2.25 Pts Two newcomers to the Tour have had very different starts to life with the big boys. Rumford finished 8th last week in the Hope whilst Johnson missed the cut. It may take Johnson a little time to get used to the tour like so many before him and it may pay to get with Rumford for now at a fairly low 4.
Buy Pat Perez FP at 45 with Sporting IndexBetHiLo for 0.5 Pts. M/U 70, Profit 12.5 Pts It's Perez's home event but that brings it's own pressure and in 6 starts here, Perez has managed a 6th and nothing else better than 39th, his average FP here is 52. He had a good start finishing 4th in Hawaii, but this is an excellent field, arguably the best there has been for this event, and he possibly should be as high as IG's 48.
R2
Buy Stuart Appleby FP at 27 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts.M/U 9 Loss 8 Pts Appleby played the easier north course yesterday which played to an average 2.5 strokes less than the tougher south. Today, therefore, he could easily fall back into the pack and is worth opposing at 27. His course record is poor with 3 missed cuts and no Top 20's in 5 starts.
6 Bets, 2 Wins, 4 Losses. P&L -19.25 Pts. Another disappointing week, highlighed by Leonard getting in on the cut line and ending up in the Top 5.