In previous years this event was held over two courses, but this year it will be held solely at the TPC Four Seasons course, which in turn has seen a sizable amount of work carried out on it since last year. So this is look like it's going to be a difficult event to accurately guage how much emphasis to put on previous course/event form, hence we'll play with reduced stakes this week.
Stake 1pts J Day to beat Uresti +105 @ The Greek With Day having missed the cut on 5 of his last 6 starts and Uresti on 6 of his last 8 starts this is obviously a risky proposition but value nevertheless. Day has won 10 out of the last 11 h2h's with Uresti and is assessed as clearly the better player. The odds look to be dictated from course form where Uresti has finished in the top ten in his last two starts (he had poor form here prior to then) while Day is making his debut here. I believe that too much emphasis has been placed on the course form. VOID - Day did not start
Stake 1.5pts Marino to beat Duke -105 @ The Greek Duke has missed the cut on 7 of his 11 starts this season and 6 of his 11 previous starts in Texas. Marino has missed the cut on 1 of his 11 starts this season and 1 of his 8 previous starts in Texas. And Marino has won 9 of the last 10 h2h's with Duke. Both players performed well in this event last time so that is having little bearing on the odds here and I just can't be having Duke as the favourite in this match up. Marino beaten by Duke by 1
Stake 2pts Poulter to beat Mahan -102 @ Expekt It's been a frustrating year for Mahan followers with some rounds of promise mixed in with a worrying amount of missed cuts and poor efforts. On the otherhand Poulter is a decent proposition on this tour these days. In the last two years he has only 3 missed cuts and has 7 top ten finishes from 20 starts. His recent good showing in the Masters should fill him with confidence (hopefully not too much confidence) and from his two previous starts in Texas he has finishes of 21st and 3rd. Mahan has missed the cut in his last two starts and overall is quite a poor performer in Texas with an average FP of over 41st from 16 previous starts. Poulter beat Mahan by 1
