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9-8; +1.36pts
Round 1 plays (2pts):
Frank Lickliter to beat Tom Pernice -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 4
Jim Furyk to beat Phil Mickelson -105 @ Five Dimes LOST by 6
Harrison Frazar to beat David Frost +105 @ Five Dimes LOST by 7
Brian Gay to beat Sean O'Hair +101 @ Unibet WON by 3
Steve Stricker to beat Sean O'Hair -115 @ Five Dimes LOST by 2
J.J. Henry to beat Sean O'Hair +117 @ Pinnacle [also available at WSEX] TIED
Alex Cejka to beat Matt Jones -110 @ Five Dimes WON by 5
Ted Purdy to beat Ryan Palmer -110 @ Five Dimes LOST by 3
John Senden to beat Carl Pettersson -105 @ Unibet [also available at Five Dimes] TIED
Joe Durant to beat Jason Day -110 @ Five Dimes WON by 3
Round 2 plays (2pts):
Fredrik Jacobson to beat D.J. Trahan -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 1 The Swede has shot a lower 2nd round score than his opponent in 14 of their last 15 common events. With Jacobson much better from tee-to-green yesterday, that dominance should continue today
Kenny Perry to beat Anthony Kim -105 @ Five Dimes and Carib WON by 3 Perry can get into some highly notable purple patches of form and his play over the last few tournaments - top-4 in GIR in 3 of 4 events - suggests he starting another one. On a course on which he has won two of the last five stagings, I expect him to make a significant move up the leaderboard today
Round 3 plays (2pts):
Ben Crane to beat Stephen Ames -105 @ Five Dimes LOST by 3 Ames has only finished ahead of Crane once this season and with a less than steller record when just off the pace at the cut, it may be another event when he finished behind his opponent
Bart Bryant to beat Rod Pampling -105 @ Five Dimes LOST by 6 Pampling has been in poor form recently, finishing behind Bryant in their last five common events, so I wouldn't be price him as the favourite in this matchup
Ben Crane to beat Rod Pampling -110 @ WSEX [also available at Carib and Bet365] LOST by 4 Natural conclusion from the above two plays; Crane has dominated Pampling in the head-to-heads this year just as much as Bryant
Mark Wilson to beat Tommy Armour -112 @ Five Dimes TIED You have to go back to July 2006 (U.S. Bank Championship) to find the only time in the last 2 1/2 years that Armour has shot a lower 3rd round score than Wilson
Alex Cejka to beat Robert Garrigus +120 @ The Greek TIED (Loss) Over the last 12 months, Cejka has beaten Garrigus in over 70% of their common events and in 75% of their 3rd round matches, so I'd say Stan James have priced this up more realistically with Cejka a -125 favourite
Round 4 plays (2pts):
Tim Clark to beat Stephen Ames +118 @ Pinnacle WON by 4 With a 6-2-1 h2h record against Ames in the final round over the last 12 months, there appears to be value in these odds on Clark
Rod Pampling to beat Stephen Ames +100 @ Carib WON by 2 Pampling final round h2h record against Ames over the last 12 months is even more impressive: 7-0-0
Dean Wilson to beat Ben Curtis -125 @ Bet365 WON by 1 A total of 192 players have completed 8 final round scores on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months: Wilson ranks 30th; Curtis 164th (almost two shots worse on average)