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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds:Matchups

 
 
Frys.com Open
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0-7; 15.04pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Kent Jones to beat Paul Goydos +100 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 2
Backing a player who is 5th in greens in regulation on Tour versus a player who is 155th and a player who finished 16th on this course last year despite a final round 76 versus a player who is making his course debut.

Jason Gore to beat Jason Day -113 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 7
Backing another player who finished in the top-20 last year against a player making his course debut. With both players just outside the top-125 on the Money List, Gore's experience should be important - he has two top-10 finishes since August; Day has had none in the last six months.

 

Round 2 play (2pts):

Jason Day to beat J.J. Henry -110 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 5
Two good rounds from Day and Henry yesterday, but how they follow it up could be quite different. In the last eight occasions that Henry has finished the 1st round in the top-10, he has yet to break 70 in the 2nd round and has averaged 73.9 shots; Day has been in the top-10 after the 1st round six times on the PGA and Nationwide Tours and has broken 70 in four of those six 2nd rounds, including the Turning Stone Resort Championship earlier this month.

 

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Mathias Gronberg to beat Todd Hamilton +100 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 4
Two players showing little form in recent months, but this looks a good price to back a player in the top-10 at the start of the weekendGe against out of contention and outside the top-50.

Bill Haas to beat Steve Elkington -110 @ Five Dimes  TIED
Haas has been the better player from tee-to-green and if he had only played the par-3s averagely well he could have been leading this tournament.

 

Round 4 plays (2pts):

George McNeill to beat Kevin Sutherland -104 @ Unibet  [also available @ Five Dimes]  LOST by 5
Opposing a player who has a one-shot lead heading into the final round and who shot the low round of the day yesterday is two obvious angles in this matchup. Another is that Sutherland has held the lead heading into the final round just once in the last 10 years (2007 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am); he finished five shots back on that occasion.

Paul Goydos to beat Arron Oberholser -115 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 3
Bob Tway to beat Arron Oberholser -105 @ Bet365  LOST by 2
This may be a local course for Oberholser, but the effect of a long layoff with a recurring wrist problem were evident yesteryday: he started the day with a one-shot lead and ended it in 8th place, four shots behind Sutherland. His Tour Card exemption from winning the 2006 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am runs out this year and while he will be eligible for a medical extension next year, there should be a lot of pressure on today's round in order to at least make sure he makes the top-150 on the Money List. Had he been playing regularly and without injury this may have been possible, but I can't see it happening in his second week back on Tour.