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The PGA Tour has amended its cut policy, giving players on the cut line one more day of competition to separate themselves from the bottom of the pack.
Starting this week at the Honda Classic, the tour will return to a traditional 36-hole cut for the top 70 and ties. If more than 78 players make the cut, there will be another cut to the top 70 and ties after the third round.
As far as I know this will not change the current new rules adopted by the firms for the previous change at the start of the season. What it will mean is that any FP bets will settle at 70 on any player who does not play R4 and also on those that play R4 but finish in 70th place or worse under normal FP settling rules. ie a player who finishes tied 69th with 3 others would MU 70 but one who is tied 69th with only one other would M/U 69.5.
Buy Arron Oberholser over Retief Goosen R1 18H MB at 1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Profit 5.13 Pts It is a sign of the times that a match between these two players gets ignored by two of the four firms. Injuries and/or complete loss of form has blighted both but the recent form being shown by Goosen is bad enough to wonder if he will ever come back to being the Top 10 player he once was. Easily beaten on day 1 of the Matchplay followed 79/77 at Riviera, Goosen has not finished in the Top 20 on this tour since last year's Masters. Oberholser hasn't played a PGA event since the Fall series, but he played well last week to beat Weir and give Woods a game in the 2nd round. He also has a 10th place on this course last year, he is therefore value at 1.5.
Buy Sean O' Hair over Jose Coceres R1 18H MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts. M/U -19, Loss 5.75 Pts Coceres was 2nd here last year but then that was on the back on a 2nd the week before in Mexico. This year he comes into this week on the back of a 69th place in Mexico where he shot 76/74/76 in the last three rounds. This is a continuation of poor results as 24th in a poor event in Argentina is his only Top 25 finish since Reno back in August. Although O'Hair hasn't shown a great deal of promise since Sawgrass when he had a chance to win coming to the 71st hole he has still managed four Top 10's on this tour since May. His yearly scoring record is 1.5 strokes better on average than Coceres and he misses only 1 in 4 cuts whereas with Coceres it is higher than 1 in 2. Course form dictates this price but I would argue Coceres was 2nd here last year not so much because the course suited but because he was in good form at the time.
Sell Justin Rose over Jason Gore R1 18H MB at 4.5 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2.13 Pts This price suggests Rose is playing at the level we know he can play at. However, in 2 starts this year he has exited on day 1 of the Matchplay and missed the weekend at Riviera. So, although he will no doubt improve we have to bet on what has happened recently rather than what should happen in the future. Gore hasn't missed a cut since his opening event in Hawaii, and has finished 14th and 9th in his last two starts. In the 5 events last year that they both played in, Rose won 2 of 5 R1 matches, 9 of 16 overall and "won" the overall matchups 3-2. These are not scores that even promote an in form Rose as a favourite by the price quoted, let alone one in poor form, even if he is still the likeliest winner.
R2
Buy Matt Jones FP at 28 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 5, Loss 11.5 Pts Jones is one of the success stories of the Nationwide graduates of 2008. Four Top 30's in five starts this year is solid form that if reciprocated throughout the season should see him easily be on Tour for 2009, but the best finish of those 4 finishes was 17th and he seems a steady player rather than one who will shoot low. That should in effect be useful here where the winning score shouldn't be too low but I still feel his price should be in the low 30's. His R1 stats show a player with a hot putter as he was only 50% in fairways and greens and with that in mind there is a fair chance he will be caught and overtaken today. He is out virtually last when the winds are forecast to be a little stronger.
Buy Kevin Sutherland FP at 30 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 40, Profit 5 Pts Also out in the afternoon is Sutherland, who currently sits on -3 and who also he relied on a hot putter. His yearly record is ok, 22nd in Riviera followed 4th in Scottsdale and 13th in the Buick to contribute to a seasonal average of just over 30. He did shoot 77 here last year on the way to a missed cut and with the field sitting the way it is, with only two shots separating Sutherland from below his quoted price we should back him at the price offered.
Buy John Mallinger FP at 34 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 9, Loss 11.5 Pts Mallinger has had one good result this year, a 3rd in the AT&T after a 65 in R4. His other results have been poor, especially a 78 and subsequent withdrawal last time out in Riviera. He is priced at 34 even although those two shots below him on the leaderboard are in 32nd place. This seems too low a price for an event with 54 holes to go and on a player who may get the worst of today's weather.
Sell Justin Rose over Jason Gore R2 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Loss 2.75 Pts Yesterday's reasoning still applies, Rose won by 1 via a bogey 6 on the last for Gore and with the match that close there is an argument for saying today's price should have tightened up a little even although Rose won.
Sell Luke Donald over Olin Browne R2 18H MB at 11 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Loss 1.25 Pts Sometimes it's difficult to promote a bet other than that the price seems too high. Donald won their match up yesterday by 11 strokes but today we have one player who may want to consolidate his position in, what could be by the time he starts, the top 5, and we have a player who knows that an under par round of 68 or 69 could see him into the weekend and a pay day.
