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6-6; -2.22pts
Round 1 plays (2pts):
Zach Johnson to beat Chad Campbell -115 @ Carib LOST by 2 Campbell is traditionally a very slow starter in events and even moreso recently - he ranks 202nd (of 215) in 1st round scoring average over the last 3 months. On a course that he has only played once (2002; opened with a 71), he shouldn't be shooting a low score today
Kevin Sutherland to beat Lucas Glover -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX] WON by 2 Glover has yet to beat Sutherland either in this event overall or in the 1st round, so with Sutherland displaying good, consistent form recently, he may struggle to do so again this week
Zach Johnson to beat Aaron Baddeley +107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX] WON by 2 Baddeley has been more consistent than Johnson recently, but he is far from playing well. The last time that he broke 70 was back in April and given that his only previous visit to this course resulted in him missing the cut by 5 shots, he really shouldn't be a strong favourite in this matchup
Joe Ogilvie to beat George McNeill -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 1 Five cuts made in six previous visits, including a top-10 finish two years ago, should point to Ogilvie making his seventh consecutive 36-hole cut. That consistency should point to value in this price
Round 2 plays (2pts):
Carl Pettersson to beat Eric Axley -143 @ Unibet LOST by 11 Chris Riley to beat Eric Axley -118 @ Five Dimes LOST by 5 Opposing Axley who finished the day in 3rd place, yet was ranked 120th for driving accuracy and 46th for greens in regulation. It is doubtful that his putter will be as hot again, particularly given his previous performances from should a good start: he has finished the first round in the top-5 twice this season and in the second he has shot 79 (finishing the 2nd day in 49th position) and 74 (finishing the 2nd day in 33rd position)
Brad Adamonis to beat Gavin Coles -118 @ Five Dimes WON by 4 Adamonis is a shot further back in 7th place, but he is much better in this situation: he has finished the first round in the top-5 four times this season and has finished the 2nd round in the top-6 in three of those four occasions. Top-ranked for greens in regulation yesterday, he should continue the same form today
Kevin Sutherland to beat Lucas Glover -110 @ Bet365 [also available @ Pinnacle, Carib and WSEX] WON by 3 Sutherland didn't miss a fairway yesterday and ranked in the top-10 for greens in regulation. In this form, it is easy to repeat the 1st round play, particularly as Glover has finished ahead of Sutherland just twice (in 14 common events) this year
Round 3 plays (2pts):
Brad Adamonis to beat Eric Axley -118 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Five Dimes, Carib and WSEX] WON by 1 Brian Davis to beat Eric Axley -111 @ Unibet LOST by 6 Continuing to oppose Axley in such a lofty position on the leaderboard. It is not as though he either played well on this course in the past or has been particularly good at ball-striking this week so far
Round 4 plays (2pts):
J.P. Hayes to beat Jay Williamson -120 @ Carib [also available @ Pinnacle and WSEX] LOST by 3 J.P. Hayes to beat Will MacKenzie -111 @ Unibet [available widely] LOST by 2 Backing Hayes today to continue his good form on this course - he has finished 2nd and 15th in the last two years here - whereas both his opponents have poor course histories. In terms of their position on the leaderboard, Hayes has a record of not underperforming when in contention unlike Williamson who has been within 5 shots of the lead at the start of the final round twice this year and finished 33rd and 34th on those occasions. And in terms of their play this week, Hayes has been very steady whereas Williamson can be easily opposed today having shot the low round of the day yesterday by two shots and MacKenzie led this event after 36 holes, but struggled to find the greens yesterday and it won't be easy to revert back to his Thursday-Friday play today