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Tournament Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Neil

Odds:Matchups

 
 
John Deere Classic
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Bets: 5     Wins: 3     Losses: 2     Profit/Loss = + 4.30 pts

Stake 5pts Perry to beat Austin -143 @ Unibet
Perry has a comprehensive 10-2 h2h advantage over Austin this season, is still in fantastic form, has stats are bearing up well and in on his only previous start here he finished a very creditable 11th last year. Austin regained some form to finish 2nd last time out on a course where he has traditionally performed well but in general has had a poor season to date. And his form here is poor too with an average FP of 58th from nine previous starts. Even at this price Perry looks to be good value.
Perry beat Austin by 4

Stake 3pts Parnevik to beat Calcavecchia -110 @ The Greek
Parnevik hasn't has a great season so far, it being marred by inconsistency. He does have at least an approximate 50% chance of making the cut and finished 22nd here last year. But this is primarily a et against Calc who after a great start to the season has been suffering with a knee injury lately, withdrawing from two of his last six starts and missing the cut in the other four. Having never played this course before he is clearly here this week to gain some practice before next weeks Open and to get a decent flight to the UK.
Parnevik beat Calcavecchia (mc)

Stake 3pts Glover to beat Kelly -110 @ The Greek
Glover has a decent chance of another good finish this week. He is playing better than he has all season, has made the cut in last four starts with some good showings included. He also has a very decent reocrd here with three good showings from his previous four starts here. Kelly is a very streaky player and at the moment is on a streak of missed cuts. He trails 4-7 to Glover in h2h's this season and despite having what appears to be a very decent record here, the two starts were back in 2000 and 2003. There's every chance that this week he will be getting more involved in the flood relief effort in the midwest where he is a spokesman for his native Wisconsin.
Glover (mc) beaten by Kelly

Stake 2pts Herron to beat Holmes -110 @ SportingBet
Two players who have played here previously and have shown that hey can perform welll here. I would have Holmes as the slightly better player overall but on current form I have to favour Herron here. He has finished in the top twenty in each of his last three starts, the basis of which has been an excellent short game. Meanwhile Holmes who has had a rather poor season has a 49th place finish and two missed cuts from his last three starts.   
Herron (mc) beaten by Holmes

Stake 4pts Sutherland to beat Watney -130 @ Carib
Even at this price there is clear value on Sutherland. He is one of the more consistent golfers around, missing very few cuts, and at the momentn he is at the top of his game with four very decent finishes in a row and some impressive accuracy stats to boot. He also has some consistent previous form here with two top ten finishes from six starts and making the cut on each occassion. Similarly Watney rarely misses a cut but his average FP this season is three places worse than Sutherlands and he trails 6-3 in h2h's this season. His stats outside driving distance are poor and from three previous starts here he has missed the cut each time.
Sutherland beat Watney (mc)