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Tournament Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Neil

Odds:Matchups

 
 
The Masters
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Bets: 9     Wins: 4     Losses: 4     Profit/Loss = - 2.43 pts

Stake 2pts Choi to beat Els +100 @ Five Dimes
Fine form from Choi this season with six top-20 finishes from nine starts. And with finishes of 15-3-33-mc-27 he has decent form at Augusta. And as Choi's game has improved considerably over recent years he could easily improve on that Augusta form. I'm not convinced of Els's majors credentials and he looks one to take on if he is favourite in matchup plays this week. His game is still quite inconsistent ranging from deadly accurate one week to erratically wild the next. And this is similar to his Augusta form which with finishes of 2-6-5-6-2 was incredible but has deteriorated of late with recent finishes of 47-27-mc.
Choi beat Els (mc)

Stake 3pts Sterne to beat Kaymer +105 @ WSEX
Neither player has any course experience and very little experience on this tour. But Sterne has got the better recent form and there is evidence that Kaymers form has deteriorated sincec Dubai. His accuracy off the tee and his putting have both declined of late and he will undoubtadely need both of these in good shape this week. Sterne looks to me to have the better all-round game and the better recent form and hence this looks to be a big price to me.
Sterne beat Kaymer (mc)

Stake 3pts Cink to beat Westwood -102 @ Unibet
Cink continues in fine form and he is typically a very consistent player. His record at Augusta is very good and supremely consistent and based on past evidence one would expect that if Westwood were to finish above Cink this week he would have to finish in the top 20, maybe even the top 10. Westwood has been stringing together a number of impressive finishes of late and his game is better than it has ever been but since the beginning of 2007 his record in PGA events has been 56-30-61-36-32-mc-17 and he has missed the cut here three out of last five starts. I don't believe that this makes him a favourite against a player whose record here reads mc-23-27-28-mc-24-17-20-10-17.
Cink beat Westwood by 4

Stake 3pts Donald to beat Garcia +100 @ Sportingbet
Unsurpisingly a lot of this play boils down to Garcia's short game. Although the lengthening of the course has basically turned this course into a beast it is still (just) about the second shot with this course and that's where Donald excels. He is relativelt short of the tee but he has got great ability with his long irons and has a very impressive short game for when he misses the green. Every year I think that Garcia will have spent the winter practicing his short game and return as a major winner and every year it's the same result. His putting is woeful and on the tour he is currently ranked 204th out of 205 in the Average Distance of Putts Made stat, only beating David Lutterus. His record here is poor while Donalds is very acceptable. It's going to take a dramatic change in his short game for him to make any sort of showing this week and although Donald still ultimately fails to meet his fans high expectations I can't resist taking him at evens here.   
Donald tied with Garcia - Loss

Stake 3pts Ogilvy to beat Goosen +105 @ Five Dimes
Stake 3pts Ogilvy to beat Harrington -110 @ The Greek & Generally Availale
These are surprisingly large odds for a player of Ogilvy against Goosen who must still have question marks to his name. Ogilvy's current form is unquestionable, backed up by an impressive set of stats. He also has a decent record her with finishes of 16th and 24th. He should go well again this week but I have reservations about Goosen. In recent months his form has improved dramatically but it would have been hard for it to do anything else and he still only has one impressive finish in recent weeks. He does have an impressive record here but his game still has deteriorated of late and there has to be question marks as to whether he can reproduce that form again in such a quality field. 
Harrington has returned this year in decent form, although not as good as Ogilvy. And his stats are not as good, his putting is fantastic but his overall accuracy still leaves some work. His record here is decent but inconsistent and I have to favour Ogilvy with the better, more consistent current, course and overall form. 
Ogilvy beaten by Goosen by 6
Ogilvy beaten by Harrington by 10

Stake 3pts V Singh to beat Harrington -105 @ Five Dimes
Stake 4pts V Singh to beat Els -115 @ Five Dimes, Pinnacle
Singh must have a great chance this week. He started the year off slowly but his recent form has been impressive and he really should have beaten Tiger in the Arnold Palmer. His record here of 1-18-7-6-6-5-8-13 is superb and with conditions in his favour both opposing players are likely to require a top 10 finish to have any chance to overcome Singh this week. 
Singh beaten by Harrington by 3
Singh beat Els (mc)

Stake 3pts Verplank to beat Oberholser -110 @ Sportingbet
I don't envisage either player making a very strong showing this week but this is largely a bet against Oberholser. He has only has three starts this season due to his injured right shoulder and it is likely that he he is only playing this week because it is a major. He hasn't shown much in those three starts and his previous form at Augusta is mixed. Verplank is not in nthe greates form of his life but he does have a very good record here due to his accurate iron play and any semblance of that form should take this match up.
Verplank (mc) beaten by Oberholser