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R1
Buy Heath Slocum over Brett Wetterich 18H MB at 1.5 withSporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Profit 3.63 Pts H2H's sees Slocum lead 12-4 in events over 12 months and have a scoring average 0.7 strokes lower than Wetterich. Recent form sees both players struggling so the only concern is the fact Wetterich has played the course competitively finishing 37th last year whereas Slocum makes his debut.
Sell Charles Howell over Nick Watney 18H MB at 2 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 5.25 Pts Watney has won the last 2 matches and has a recent record that includes two Top 25's in three starts whereas Howell has now finished outside the top 40 in his last 4 starts. We have the same issue here of supporting a debutant but with Howell finishing cut/cut/30 in the last three years that isn't a great concern. Like Slocum over Wetterich, we are supporting the player with a better long term, and short term, scoring average
Sell Martin Kaymer over Arron Oberholser 18H MB at -1.5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Profit 5.12 Pts Oberholser has suffered through the last few months with injury but to be fair to him his results when playing have been ok. He has made the cut in his 2 starts since the Matchplay and although Kaymer won in the Middle East early in the season his results since have been no better than Oberholser's, with 39th his best in 3 starts. This time we are on the player with Masters experience and who has finished 14th and 58th in the two years he has played here.
Sell Jose Maria Olazabal over Wen-Chong Liang 18H MB at 6 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 1.5 Pts Olly comes into the event on the back of a respectable 26th place last week but is surely still not match fit for an event of such importance. Far Eastern players tend to get under valued in the bigger events in Europe and the US and Liang put in a very respectable 12th in the Zurich two weeks ago. Olly should be favourite by 3-6 and to be able to sell at 6 is fair.
Sell Miguel Angel Jimenez over D. J. Trahan 18H MB at 4 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 4.25 Pts Current form suggests there is nothing much between this pair and the price may be set as your average punter who would bet on only the bigger events maybe hasn't heard of Trahan. Jimenez may be worthy of favouritism but by nowhere near 4 pts and should be sold at that offer.
Buy Justin Rose over Henrik Stenson 18H MB at 3 withCantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 28, Profit 6.25 Pts A 10-1 strokeplay tournament lead over a year for Rose shows how much better he has performed than his opponent and all stats considered he should be a heavier favourite than he is. Course form shows Stenson with a 17th place and missed cut compared to Rose's 39/22/5 and scoring form sees Rose averaging 1.5 strokes less than Stenson and less than everyone in the field bar Woods and Stricker.
Sell Retief Goosen over Adam Scott 18H MB at 1 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 22, Loss 5.25 Pts Assuming last week's withdrawal is a problem that Scott is now over, and he certainly suggets it is, we have to look to his 63 in R1 before becoming ill and his 9-3 tournament lead over Goosen over 12 months to suggest Scott should be the favourite here, not the South African. Scoring average over a year is over 1 stroke lower for Scott and he seems confident enough in pre tournament interviews to suggest we can ignore the illness issue.
Day 1 - Bets 7, Wins 6, Losses 1, P&L +20.75
R2
Sell Jose Maria Olazabal over Wen-Chong Liang 18H MB at 5 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 3.5 Pts Same reasons apply as yesterday, when offered nearly the same price on a 2 ball the overwhelming favourite failed to win.
Sell Justin Rose over Toru Taniguchi 18H MB at 12 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -28, Profit 10 Pts This price is a complete over-reaction to yesterday and with Rose in the lead he will do well to consolidate that position from last out today. Realistically this should be priced up 8-11.
Sell Retief Goosen over Adam Scott 18H MB at 3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.75 Pts The only losing bet yesterday, but with 2 extra points offered, there is value in opposing Goosen.
Sell J. B. Holmes over John Rollins 18H MB at 3 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts M/U 19, Loss 4 Pts A 4 stroke difference yesterday but long term sees very similar stats, and Rollins has had the better of their last 3 encounters.