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7-11; -5.83pts
A different type of betting market for me this year, though
really only a return to the predominant type of plays that I was posting when
this site was first set up. Picks will be posted in the morning ahead of each
round on this Tour and, as far as possible, I will also post up a notice if
there are no plays that day. The new plays will posted lower down each page, so
don't forget to scroll down if you don't see the new plays!
The majority of my plays will come from
Pinnacle,
Five
Dimes and
Carib.
That is not because I'm not looking at the UK/European bookies' odds, but that I
find it hard to better the value found at these three sportsbooks when they
offer a push for the tie and almost everyone else offers three-way odds.
I will provide some very brief reasons for each play, but
nothing more. It is easy to provide full reasonings for outright plays in the
knowledge that the odds will change only slightly because of the huge volume in
that market. It is very different with 18-hole matchups, so do expect some sharp
line movements once people have followed my plays. I also need to keep some of
the betting angles private for these matchups else the adjustments will be made
by the odds compilers beforehand and it will be harder to find any value.
For the first month or so, all tips will probably be low stakes
(e.g. 1pt) until the season settles down and the stakes will be "to win 1pt" if
the selection is odds-on (i.e. minus odds on the moneyline) and "1pt stake" if
the selection is odds-against (i.e. plus odds on the moneyline). For consistency
and because I hope to introduce 18-hole matchup odds listings later in the year,
all odds will be quoted in moneyline terms.
Round 1 plays (1pt)
K.J. Choi to beat Angel Cabrera -125 @
Carib
LOST by 9
Lots of good experience playing in Hawaii versus none and a 9-3-1 h2h 1st
round record in favour of Choi as well
K.J. Choi to beat Zach Johnson -115 @
Five
Dimes LOST by 3
Opposing Johnson as a poor wind player and being short off the tee will
struggle as he did here in 2005
Rory Sabbatini to beat Scott Verplank -107 @
Pinnacle
WON by 1
Sabbatini spent Christmas in Hawaii and is fully prepared for this event. The
last time Verplank played in this event he finished 4th-last; Sabbatini was 2nd
Round 2 plays (1pt) K.J. Choi to beat Boo Weekley -120 @
The Greek
and
ToteSport
(ties lose) LOST by 1
Boo hadn't played a round of golf or been on the practice range since the
World Cup until this week and it showed yesterday. He will hardly improve today,
while Choi must surely do so Stephen Ames to beat Scott
Verplank -105 @
Five
Dimes WON by 3
The penalty shot aside, Verplank was poor from tee-to-green yesterday (20th
in greens in regulation) so doesn't favouritism against Ames today
Rory Sabbatini to beat Steve Flesch -136 @
Pinnacle LOST by
4
Sabbatini was good from tee-to-green yesterday (5th in greens in regulation)
and should beat Flesch who, in his last three limited field events in which he
ended round 1 in the top-10, shot 74-78-73 in the 2nd round. Limited field
events are unique in the volatility of round-to-round scoring
Mark Wilson to beat Fred Funk -135 @
Five
Dimes LOST by 1
Simply opposing Funk whose motivation/abilities to respond to poor 1st round
scores has declined significantly in recent years
Round 3 plays (1pt) Stephen Ames to beat Mike Weir +103 @
Pinnacle LOST by
2
Backing Ames to win the battle of the Canadians. He's been in Hawaii since
20th December with his family (playing golf, not just on holiday), doesn't have
to defend a tournament lead and has remained in the top-3 in six out of seven
times that he has headed into the 3rd round in 2nd or 3rd place
Stephen Ames to beat Scott Verplank -105 @
Five
Dimes WON by 2
A better performance from Verplank yesterday, but not enough to warrant
favouritism against Ames who has been much more impressive Brandt
Snedeker to beat Jonathan Byrd -117 @
Pinnacle LOST by 1
Snedeker's driver face has cracked and his putter face has need to be
re-squared this week and still he's 4th. With no equipment failures today he should
beat Byrd who has never beaten 70 in eight attempts when 2nd/3rd after two
rounds Mark Calcavecchia to beat Jonathan Byrd -110 @
Five
Dimes LOST by 2
Calc: "At the Merrill Lynch Shootout with Woody Austin that we won, and
Tiger's deal, I just hit it great. ... I got over here. I still kept hitting it
good." Calc's problem on Thursday was that it was wet; it was dry yesterday and
he hit every green in regulation. Today it should be dry again
Daniel Chopra to beat Charles Howell -105 @
Five
Dimes WON by 1
Basically opposing Howell who is struggling with his irons and is poorly
motivated when out of contention: in his last 12 events when 9-11 shots behind
the leader after 2 rounds, he has improved his leaderboard position only 3 times
and never shot lower than 71
Round 4 plays (1pt unless stated)
Jim Furyk to beat Stephen Ames -149 @
Pinnacle
[1.5pts] LOST by 2
Furyk's record when within 5 shots of the lead entering the final round is
phenomenal: in 14/19 occasions in the last two years, he has shot at least one
shot better than the average score of all players within 5 shots of the lead
that day; in only 2/19 occasions did he shoot worse than the average of all
those in contention. Quite a different story for Ames
Jim Furyk to beat Vijay Singh -120 @
Five
Dimes [1.5pts] WON by 2
Vijay is very hit and miss in these 'within 5 shots of the lead' situations,
so I'll take my chances with the more consistent player when in contention
Brandt Snedeker +0.5 to beat Vijay Singh +109 @
Five
Dimes WON by 0.5
Snedeker also has a very good record in these situations, but I'll take the
safety option of earning the win even if Snedeker and Singh tie
Nick Watney to beat Mike Weir +118 @
Pinnacle
LOST by 1
Weir has held the lead heading into the final round only once in the last
three years - 2006 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am - and he shot 78 that day.
That was a poor performance and just once in three years is not a lot of
practice in these situations. He'll face pressure from a lot of players in
contention and the impressive Watney should be able to take advantage
Justin Leonard to beat Mike Weir +100 @
Five
Dimes WON by 1
Similar story here, backing the Leonard at worse odds than Watney, but he
does have more experience in these situations
Jonathan Byrd to beat Daniel Chopra +120 @
Unibet [0.5pts] LOST by 8
A small play on Byrd against the inconsistent Chopra and which is available
at very attractive odds ... Pinnacle make Byrd a strong -113 favourite in this
pairing | 
