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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds:Spreads

 
 
Ryder Cup
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Sell Padraig Harrington over Jim Furyk on Sporting Index "Player Points Matchbet" market at 0 for 0.5 Pts M/U -20, Profit 10 Pts
Current form shows Harrington finishing cut, cut, 55 whilst Furyk has finished 12, 7, 3 in the same events. Their Ryder Cup record sees Harrington record 8pts from 17 starts and Furyk 6pts from 15 so there is not a lot of difference there but what attracts me to the trade is the fact that Harrington now seems to be going down the line that the likes of Woods and Mickelson have taken, that being the attempt to peak at the right time of season, ie Majors. That isn't to say he won't put 100% into this week but his record away from the 4 majors over the last 18 months has been quite poor. With current form very much with Furyk he is a good opponent to oppose Harrington with given he is likely to see as many starts in this event whereas some others may not.  

Scoring: 10 pts a win and 5 pts per Ryder Cup point won by, max MU 35/-35  

Please note there is a small window of time between announcements of pairings, prices being released and the matches starting in the two sets of afternoon sessions on Friday and Saturday so anyone wishing to follow the trades should look at the site close to before the sessions start up. The first 4 pairings for Friday AM will be announced at the opening ceremony and priced up soon after.

Day 1 Foursomes

Sell Mickelson/Kim over Harrington/Karlsson 18H foursomes match at 1 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Profit 0.25 Pts
Sell Stenson/Casey over Leonard/Mahan 18H foursomes match at 2 with
IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 5.25 Pts
Of the four opening matches I would argue that Sporting are overestimating Kim in his first match in this cauldron and that IG have underestimated Mahan, after some comments made a few weeks ago about this event, maybe makes them feel his heart isn't in it. I'd price both matches nearer "choice".

Day 1 Fourballs

Buy Stricker/Curtis over Rose/Poulter 18H fourballs match at 1 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Loss 5.75 Pts
USA should be clear favourites, with Rose looking out of sorts to me in the morning play. The Europeans also have 10 mins rest against two fresh players. 
Sell Mickelson/Kim over Harrington/McDowell 18H fourballs match at 3 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Loss 3.25 Pts 
Mcdowell isn't 2pts inferior to Karlsson and that's what these prices suggest in what is a rematch of the other 3 participants after a tie.

Day 2 

Sell Europe Day 2 Supremacy at 11.5 with Spreadex for 0.25 Pts M/U 0, Loss 3.75 Pts
Faldo's decision to drop Garcia from a format that he has an unbeaten record of 9 matches in suggests 
that he is gambling that if he succeeds in this event now he will be hailed as a genius. The easy option 
would have been to trust the players he knew had 
long term success to claw back the 3pt deficit and 
then go on to claim enough singles wins to retain the trophy. By adopting this policy he is taking a big 
risk as if it all goes pear shaped he is going to be the one criticized, not the players. The price doesn't 
reflect this risk.

Sell Furyk/Perry over McDowell/Poulter 18H fourballs match at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -13, Profit 4.25 Pts
Surprised the Perry/Furyk double act are going again as they look as if they have had a fair amount of mental tiredness so far. Poulter and Mcdowell will be desperate to go out and repeat morning successes and should be favourites 

Day 3

Sell Holmes over Hansen Singles match at -1 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U 16, Loss 4.25 Pts
Sell Stricker over Poulter 18H Singles match at 0 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 4.75 Pts
Holmes is not the type of player you would even be confident backing in a singles matchplay as he is so erratic. If it works for him, fine, but you can't really see him not losing a few holes to par. Poulter has played at a level that should make him favourite over one of the US's lesser players and the fact he is not means he is worth a bet. Also, I think Poulter may be determined to come out of this week as the Top European points scorer at least and victory will ensure that, and give him a shot at overall if Mahan doesn't beat Casey.

9 Bets, 5 Wins, 4 Losses.  +7.5 Pts