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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

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Please Note !!!

There is a rule change for Finishing Position betting for the 2008 season. This is due to an amendment to how the cut is decided after R2, as per the following extract from the pgatour.com site.

4. Tournament Cuts
The Policy Board also approved a change in the regulation pertaining to the 36-hole cut at tournaments. Currently, the cut following the second round is to the low 70 professionals and ties. Under the new regulation, the cut will continue to be to the low 70 professionals and ties, unless that results in a weekend field size of more than 78 players. Under that circumstance, the cut would be made to the number closest to 70.

To deal with this amendment, the firms have decided to have a maximum M/U for FP purposes of 70. This will apply over all tours even although the rule only applies to the PGA Tour. This will mean that if 76 players make the cut the M/U of those who don't will be 70, and those who finish worse than 70th at the end of the tournament will also M/U 70. So, basically, the rule is, a player will be deemed to have finished in the exact position that player finished in the field, with the usual allowances for ties, with a maximum make up of 70.

Buy Shigeki Maruyama FP at 45 with Sporting Index BetHiLo for 0.5 Pts M/U 28, Loss 8.5 Pts
Maruyama had a horrendous 2007 which improved right at the death when he finished 2nd in the last event of the season. His average, though, over the season was over 60 and he had an abnormal number of withdrawals to go with a fair amount of missed cuts. In fact he failed to beat the new maximum M/U of 70 in 21 of his 31 starts. He has 3 Top 10's here which is probably the reason for the low quote, but his last two starts have been 70th and a missed cut. His best days on this tour may be behind him.

Buy Angel Cabrera FP at 37 with Sporting Index BetHiLo for 0.5 Pts M/U 70, Profit 16.5 Pts
Three year form for Cabrera on this tour shows 26 starts, with a 42% cut miss % and an average FP (on the new rules) of 46. Mid-field last week after 4 steady rounds of two 70's and two 71's, Cabrera will find this a harder course to deal with and his accuracy stats, where he is not in the Top 50 in this field for fairways or greens, will mean he will have to be sharp with his putter to have a big week. Not an event Cabrera would probably have chosen to play were it not for the fact he was in the region due to qualifying for last week's Mercedes. He is value at anything under 40 as a buy this week.

Sell Alejandro Canizares over John Merrick 18H R1 MB at 0 with Sporting Index BetHiLo for 0.25 Pts MU 16 Loss 4.0
This price is possibly skewed as Canizares has three starts on this tour with fairly good results, two top 25's and a missed cut. However, after this stint in America about 11 months ago, he played the rest of 07' in Europe and failed to get into the Top 15 in 16 of his 19 starts. Merrick, meanwhile, has a fair R1 average of 71 for his 2007 starts and although not that impressive it may be enough to beat Canizares.

Sell Chad Campbell over Boo Weekley 18H R1 MB at 1 with Cantor Spreadfair for 0.25 Pts MU 19 Loss 4.5
There has been a lot of false dawns with Campbell and a win in late 07' has people believing again that he can take the "next step". However, I prefer to deal in stats and in 2007 Weekley beat Campbell in 14 of the 18 events they both played in, including this event. This contributed to a near 1 stroke average supremacy for Weekley last year over Campbell. At best, they should be "1.5 choice".

1 Win, 3 Losses -0.5 Pts