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7-6; +1.52pts
Round 1 plays (2pts):
Jesper Parnevik to beat Kevin Streelman +110 @ Pinnacle LOST by 3
Paul Goydos to beat Chris DiMarco -130 @ Five Dimes WON by 2
Jesper Parnevik to beat Bob Estes -110 @ Five Dimes LOST by 5
Heath Slocum to beat Sean O'Hair -115 @ Carib TIED
Mathew Goggin to beat Sean O'Hair -105 @ Five Dimes WON by 5
Robert Gamez to beat J.P. Hayes -115 @ Five Dimes WON by 2
Tommy Armour to beat Tom Pernice -105 @ Five Dimes LOST by 1
Tim Petrovic to beat Chez Reavie -105 @ Five Dimes TIED
Round 3 plays (2pts):
Tim Herron to beat Jeff Overton -125 @ Five Dimes TIED The pressure is still on Overton as he remains outside the top-125 on the Money List when he could have guaranteed his 2009 playing rights last week: he shot 73-73 over the weekend having started it in the lead. This time he starts the week in 5th place, but a repeat looks likely if he doesn't start this round too well.
Rory Sabbatini to beat Kevin Streelman -119 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX] WON by 6 It is always difficult to repeat your performance when shooting the low round of the day as Streelman did yesterday and against a player who shown some improved form recently, Streelman looks the player to oppose in this matchup.
Kevin Stadler to beat Jimmy Walker +135 @ The Greek TIED Quite a difference of opinion when Unibet and Five Dimes price Stadler -130 in this matchup and he is a best-price +100 (with ties lose) elsewhere. Walker has started the weekend on the PGA Tour in the top-5 just twice in his career - he finished 17th in the 2005 MCI Heritage and 61st in the 2008 Sony Open.
Tim Herron to beat Paul Goydos -103 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX] WON by 6 Huge gulf in form between these two and even though Goydos has done well on this course in 2006 and 2003, Herron is a former winner of this event should form should prevail in this matchup.
Mark Wilson to beat Charlie Wi -110 @ Five Dimes WON by 1 Backing the player in the better form in this matchup - Wi has finished ahead of Wilson just once in their last five common events - and has had a top-3 finish on this course; Wi's best finish here is 59th.
Round 4 plays (2pts):
Jimmy Walker to beat Michael H. Thompson -103 @ Five Dimes WON by 3 Will back Walker at this price. He has started the last round in the top-15 twice in the last three months and shot 68-70, whereas Thompson appears opposable at this price as despite being a finalist in the 2007 U.S. Amateur Championship and was low amateur in this year's U.S. Open, has only looked impressive in one PGA Tour event since: he opened with a 65 in the Travelers Championship, but every round thereafter was higher.
Rory Sabbatini to beat Zach Johnson -102 @ Pinnacle [available widely] LOST by 8 Sabbatini has held the post-third round lead six times on the PGA Tour/WGC, winning three times, finishing 2nd twice and third once. Considering that two of the three times that he didn't convert his chances, he lost out to Tiger Woods, that's a pretty good ratio and a clear indication that he doesn't buckle under final round pressure. With Johnson languishing at 125th in the Money List, it is unclear that he has the form/confidence to put Sabbatini under pressure today.
Tom Petrovic to beat Jeff Overton +145 @ The Greek LOST by 4 A very tempting price at which to oppose Overton, particularly as he surged into the lead on the front nine yesterday only to drop back, shooting over-par over his last ten holes. If he couldn't play as well under the pressure of leading, it is little surprise that he currently ranked 194th (of 200) in final round scoring average on the PGA Tour this year.
Joe Ogilvie to beat Tim Herron -107 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX and Carib] LOST by 4 With the winds forecast to pick up today after yesterday's calm, easy conditions, it looks sensible to back the more consistent player in this matchup - Herron, like Overton, surged to the early lead yesterday only to drop back even more dramatically than Overton, though he did recover some ground on the back nine. With Herron also ranking almost 100 places lower on the PGA Tour's final round scoring average list, this should also point to Ogilvie today.