6-3; +5.58pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Camilo Villegas to beat Charles Howell -114 @ Pinnacle  [also available @ WSEX]  WON by 5
For such an attacking player, it may be surprising that Villegas has made the cuts in both his previous Opens and he should again make the cut around a course on which he finished 13th in January. In terms of the head-to-head matchup, he has dominated Howell over the past year, shooting a lower score in 13/18 1st rounds and finishing ahead of him in 13/18 common events

Lee Westwood to beat Henrik Stenson -120 @ Five Dimes  WON by 8
These players have competed in six common strokeplay events on U.S. courses over the last year with Stenson never shooting a lower 1st round score and finishing ahead of Westwood only once. With Westwood having the better overall U.S. Open record as well, he deserves favouritism in this matchup

Steve Stricker to beat K.J. Choi +100 @ Unibet  WON by 1
Neither player in great form at the moment, but the U.S. Open is such a demanding test that it should raise the game of those with a good history in it and lower the confidence even further of those who traditionally struggle in this event and Choi has struggled, missing the cut in each of the last two years (as well as missing the cut at the Buick Invitational on this week's course in each of the last two years). Stricker has, by contrast, been in the thick of contention right up to Sunday afternoon in each of the last two years

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Padraig Harrington +100 @ Carib  [also available @ Five Dimes]  WON by 9
Two top-10 finishes in his last two starts as well as being a U.S. Open winner in 2005 makes Ogilvy a good contender for the title this week. He may have struggled on this course in January each year, but the U.S. Open set up clearly suits his game. As for Harrington, two missed cuts in the last three years shows that he is hardly consistent in this event and the decision to play at the venue of the Ryder Cup two weeks may backfire on him this week. His form is already inconstent with two missed cuts in his last four starts and he now he has a pre-major schedule that he has never attempted before of playing in Europe one week, the U.S. the following week and then a major in the 3rd week - that is far from ideal preparation for such a demanding test

Round 2 play (2pts):

Pat Perez to beat Woody Austin -108 @ Unibet  [also available @ Five Dimes, Carib, Pinnacle and WSEX]  LOST by 1
Disappointing opening round from Perez considering that he worked at the course as a teenager and has played it over a thousand times. However, he does have a good bounceback record in the 2nd round, ranked 63rd (of 279) in 2nd round scoring average over the past 12 months while Austin ranks 172nd, almost a full shot worse on average. That dominance is also displayed by their head-to-head record: over the last 12 months, Perez has shot the lower 2nd round score in 15 of 18 common events. Five Dimes appear to be closer to the mark in pricing Perez at -125

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Stuart Appleby to beat Robert Karlsson -105 @ WSEX   [also available @ Carib, Pinnacle and Bet365]  LOST by 4
Appleby may be leading the event, but Karlsson is paired with Tiger and even given the Swede's purple patch of form, he will face enormous pressure today. As for Appleby, he is a proven front runner - he has held the 36-hole lead four times since the start of 2006, shooting 70 or less every time and increasing his lead in three of those four occasions

Mike Weir to beat Aaron Baddeley -111 @ Unibet  [available widely]  WON by 2
After finishes of 3rd, 4th, 6th and 20th in four of the last five U.S. Opens, Weir may be expected to have been better placed than 42nd at this stage of the event. However he was unfortunate to have been playing in the afternoon group on Thursday when conditions were the toughest they have been all week, so he should be expected to improve his position over the weekend and should that over Baddeley whom he has beaten in four of the last five times that they have played together

Martin Kaymer to beat Andrew Romero +110 @ WSEX   [also available @ Carib, Pinnacle and Bet365]  WON by 4
A good price for opposing Romero whose driving should be penalised more as the course becomes harder and the USGA make sure that the course is set up so as to ensure that under-par does not win the event - he yet to hit more than 50% of fairways in any round. Kaymer has been much better of the two recently as well as more consistently and that should also be of importance today

Round 4 play (2pts):

Steve Stricker to beat Chad Campbell -118 @ Unibet  [available widely]  LOST by 2
With a best finish of 35th and five cuts missed from eight attempts, this is clearly not one of Campbell's most suitable events and while he did make the cut this week - albeit by a single shot - he shouldn't be expected to be making any significant move up the leaderboard today. Given his recent record in this event, it is much more possible with Stricker and then there is the head-to-head record: Stricker has shot a lower final round score than Campbell on every single occasion since May 2007 for a perfect 10-0-0 record