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Open Championship R1 (I will be placing some 18H bets on The Open but will list them here so as not to confuse with Steve's tips on the main Euro spreads page. Any US Bank trades to follow later in the week.)
Sell Matt Kuchar over Brendan Jones 18H MB at 2 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -25, Profit 6.75 Pts Kuchar has missed his last two cuts and comes over to play in the Open for the 3rd time having missed both cuts and on the European tour for the 11th time having missed 8 cuts overall. He faces Jones who has played one Open in 2004 at Troon missing the cut and who has just as poor form in this part of the world as Kuchar. His form currently though is impeccable on the Japanese tour with 4 Top 10's in his last 6 starts and although that isn't the greatest indicator for an event in windy Lancashire, it is sufficient to suggest he shouldn't be underdog against a player who has consistently failed to perform in these conditions.
Sell Ernie Els over Scott Verplank 18H MB at 7 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -19, Profit 6.5 Pts Verplank holds a 7-3-2 R1 lead over the slow starting Els even although by the Sunday night Els has turned this round to 8-4 in his favour. In Open's only, Els leads R1 3-1-4 for an average M/U of 4 and Verplank's Open record isn't too bad with 5 Top 40 finishes since the millenium.
Sell Paul Casey over Hideto Tanihara 18H MB at 8 with IG Sport for 0.25 Pts M/U -16, Profit 6 Pts Arguably the most disappointing of the current crop of English players in his own major, Casey has a record of cut/cut/20/cut/71/27 over the last 6 years with Tanihara finishing 5th in one of his three starts in this event. Casey shouldn't be 8 points favourite over the Japanese player who has three Top 10's at home in his last 5 starts including a win.
Sell Fredrik Jacobson over Jeff Overton 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 2 Pts It is difficult to try and price up a match when one of the players has never played outside of his home country but recent form suggests that we can take a chance with Overton at 5. He has been 9th and 24th in his last two starts and has a 13-7 R1 lead over Jacobson in the last year. Jacobson, of course, is also in a rich vein of form with a 9th and 2nd in his last two starts but even although he is European, his form over here is patchy since moving to the US full time. Jacobson should win the match but with a 5pt start there is definitely value in supporting the debutant.
R2
Sell Matt Kuchar over Brendan Jones 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 13, Loss 3.25 Pts An easy win yesterday but the 2pt penalty isn't sufficient to put me off going in again, Jones should be clear favourite.
Sell Colin Montgomerie over Boo Weekley 18H MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -16, Profit 4 Pts 7 shots difference yesterday means that Colin is favourite now after Boo started R1 at 2-5 in places. The worry of course is that Boo goes through the motions and is already planning to find the best fishing location in the North West for the weekend, but the hope that he tries to get in to R3, which he could manage with a 68, and the added pressure Monty will no doubt put himself under, leads me to a belief that we may have a bit of value on Boo.
