2-6; -9.04pts 

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Briny Baird to beat Bubba Watson -116 @ Unibet  [also available @ Pinnacle and WSEX]  WON by 3
They're playing on a tight, tree-lined course so I can't see Watson doing particularly well this week, particularly as he has only finished ahead of Baird twice in their last ten common events

J.J. Henry to beat Troy Matteson +100 @ WSEX  [also available @ Pinnacle]  LOST by 1
Lots of missed cuts between this pair, but I still wouldn't make Matteson the favourite - Baird has beaten him in 12 of 17 common events over the last six months, including 5 of their last 6 common 1st rounds

Brian Gay to beat Eric Axley -110 @ Five Dimes  TIED
Their prospective abilities to thrive on this week's course determine this play: Gay ranked 23rd in driving accuracy on Tour this year, whereas the overly-aggressive Axley ranks 184th. Gay has also finished ahead of Axley in 15 of their last 20 events to show this play is not just about accuracy off the tee

Further Round 1 play (2pts):

Brad Elder to beat John Daly -122 @ Unibet  LOST by 2
Missed this matchup first time around. What better player to oppose on a tight course than Daly who has missed 11 of his last 12 cuts and gets into this event on a sponsor's exemption. Elder may not be in great form, but he is still playing much better than his opponent against whom he has scored the lower 1st round score in 7 of 8 common events this year

Round 2 play (2pts):

Corey Pavin to beat Ryan Moore -120 @ Bet365  LOST by 1
Big difference in form between these two. Over the last two months, Moore has missed three of five cuts and has a best finish of 58th; Pavin has made all six cuts and has a best finish of 10th. This week's traditional-style course should also favour the Tour veteran

Round 3 play (2pts):

Jeff Gove to beat Danny Lee +110 @ SkyBet  LOST by 6
Gove misses a lot of cuts, but he tend to carry over any form in the first two rounds: he has been in the top-20 at the cut 12 times since 2006 and has shot 71 or better in the 3rd round 10 of those 12 times. Lee may be the #1 ranked amateur in the world, but he is a big-hitter and on a course that shouldn't suit, he has not hit as many fairways or greens as Gove so far; this should continue today

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Briny Baird to beat Carl Pettersson +103 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1
Good odds to oppose the leader in the final round. Pettersson has won twice from four attempts on the PGA Tour when leading with one round to play, but on the last occasion (2007 Fry's Electronics Open), he shot 76 on the Sunday

Tim Clark to beat Bob Sowards -143 @ IASbet  WON by 1
A player who has missed five of his last seven cuts and currently lies 220th in the Money List with just the Fall Series events after this week will face enormous pressure to today. The odds are short, but certainly warranted in this final round matchup

Brian Gay to beat Martin Laird -110 @ The Greek  LOST by 9
Laird struggled to follow up his opening 63 with a 74 on Friday and should again struggle to follow up yesterday's 64, particularly he has ranks 70th of 78 in greens in regulation so far this week. At 162nd in the Money List, he will face just as much pressure as Sowards to capitalise on this leaderboard position, whereas Gay is assured of at least three events in the Playoffs