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Spread Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Andy

Odds:Spreads

 
 
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
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Buy Retief Goosen FP at 36 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 60, Profit 12 Pts
A player who only a few weeks ago was not getting any quotes on the FP market as his scoring was so poor, Goosen has now turned things round completely thanks to a 14th and 2nd in his last two starts. This confirms that Goosen is back to some sort of form again but does it justify a quote of 33-36 on FP when his record over a full year, and not just in the period that he was suffering from blurred vision, is questionable. His 2007 stats show an average 42 in FP terms in 10 starts and as a debutant on this course, 36 seems a quote designed to catch out those who will back him on the belief that his latest two starts put him on track for the World's elite again.

Sell Tommy Armour over Shane Bertsch R2 18H MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U 25, Loss 5.5 Pts
This price over estimates the importance of R1 scoring. Bertsch is out of this event already having shot +6 in R1 but historical scoring between these players, which in cludes many instances of the same scenario shows that the players are fairly equal. If anything, Bertsch has performed better over this year than Armour. He leads 3-1 in events and 6-3-2 in rounds, Of course, the effort put in today by Bertsch may not be 100% but that doesn't mean to say that Armour is going to follow up his under par round again today given that his scoring in 08' only shows 4 sub 70 rounds in 13 up to this week.

Sell John Mallinger over Jesper Parnevik R2 18H MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts M/U -22, Profit 6.75 Pts
Another match where the supported player shot a poor score yesterday but is roughly the equal of his opponent generally. Mallinger leads H2H's 11-9 and 9-8-2 in R2 scoring alone and although we have to allow for the 7 shot difference yesterday that is more than compensated for in the price considering yesterday Mallinger was favourite by only 0-3 at one firm.

3 bets, 2 wins, 1 loss. +13.25 Pts