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Sell Joe Durant over Cliff Kresge 18H R1 MB at 0 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U -25, Profit 12.5 Pts Durant is a past winner here and that is possibly affecting the price as his H2H against Kresge in 08' reads 8 wins and 14 losses. Immediate form sees Kresge finish 6 shots in front of Durant last week, scoring better in every round bar R2 where he shot 1 stroke more. At this venue, which has had a number of course changes to the rota regularly, making course form untrustworthy, Durant has a win, one further top 20 and 3 missed cuts in 10 starts. His average FP is over 43 in his career here. Kresge has a 6th and a 16th in four starts, missing the cut on the other two occasions. Noticably, Kresge is averaging over half a stroke less in 2008 in the scoring stats than Durant but over three years their numbers are fairly similar, suggesting Kresge is the better player currently. Sell Chad Campbell over John Senden 18H R1 MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 13, Loss 5 Pts Another match where the H2H's favour the "dog". Campbell trails 10-6 in tournaments and 7-6-3 in R1 matches over the full 2008 season. These results are probably skewed a little because most people will have Campbell as the better player but these stats show that possibly Campbell performs very well sporadically but is generally average. Certainly in that 16 event sample he has three top 10's to Senden's one but missed 7 cuts to Senden's 3. His course form is an example of this with a win and a 16th place in 6 starts but an average FP of 40. Senden has finished 5th and 6th here and never worse than 57th in seven starts. Buy Mathew Goggin FP at 39 with IG Sport for 0.5 Pts M/U 21.5, Loss 8.75 Pts Goggin has played this event 4 times, with one 39th place, a missed cut and an average FP of 42. He is a low 39 due to two second place finishes before Christmas in Australia. But that was 4-5 weeks ago now and take away that current form and he would be priced around the 43/44 mark that the likes of Duke, Perez and Sutherland are, players of similar, or possibly slightly better, ability. Buy Chad Campbell FP at 36 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 11, Loss 12.5 Pts Stats above show Campbell is hit and miss around here, and 36 is arguably a bit too low even although we have a 128 field rather than the usual 144 or 156 and that the field is nowhere near the quality of last week's Sony. 1-3-0 -13.75 Pts |
