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Buy "Spin That Webb" Specials Market at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 25, Profit 8.5 Pts This is a "Performance" market based on where Webb Simpson finishes this week. Scoring is 200 pts for a win, 100 pts Top 10, 50 pts Top 20, 25 pts top 30, 0 Pts between 31st and last place Sunday, -25 pts if he misses the cut. His performances so far this season would have produced 200 pts in 3 starts with two top 10's and a 65th place last week. Interestingly, last week he was 5th on Friday night only to have a poor weekend and fell 60 places. This may have influenced Sporting's pricing of the market as he has now played all 3 events he was eligible to play and may need a rest. I would be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt on his weekend scoring last week and would reasitically pitch his price at around the 12-16 that John Merrick is priced at in the same market. Buy Retief Goosen FP at 40 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 30, Loss 5 Pts Goosen has went through a torrid time in the last couple of years and even although he has finished 21st in Qatar and has won in Africa recently, he really shouldn't be 40 on FP's in a PGA Tour event just yet. His 2008 PGA Tour record reads three Top 20's, 5 missed cuts and an average FP of 48 in 14 starts. His only course visit here is a 14th in the US Open last year (one of the three Top 20's) but the course is totally different for this event than the setup in the summer. He should arguably be pitched along with the likes of Sutherland and Perez at 41-44 or maybe even Appleby two points higher. Sell Padraig Harrington over Marc Turnesa 18H R1 MB at 10 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 5 Pts Sell Camilo Villegas over Marc Turnesa 18H R1 MB at 8 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 34, Loss 13 Pts Sometimes a bet is value purely on the basis that the price is just too big rather than any positives that can be applied to the player you wish to win or negatives for those you hope will under-perform, this is one of these occasions. Turnesa comes into this week on the back of two missed cuts and last place in the Mercedes. He faces a player who has won the last two majors and the player who won the last two Play off events in the Fedex Cup. Harrington has won 5 from 5 H2Hs in 2008 although the R1 record is 1-3-1 and Villegas has won 9 from 10 with R1 finishing 8-2. The respective average M/Us though are -3 and 14 on R1 scoring and although I wouldn't be too confident on a 72H bet, over 18 holes anything can happen and possibly both prices are a couple of points too high, given that Harrington hasn't played for 3 weeks, nor in America for 5 months and also that Villegas MC'd last week. Sell Phil Mickelson over Kevin Sutherland 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 31, Loss 13.5 pts |
