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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 

Odds: 3-Balls

Crowne Plaza Invitational
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12-6; +5.40pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt):

John Merrick to beat James Nitties +100 @ Stan James [tie loses]  LOST by 4
Nitties has played well in the last two events, having previously struggled for form, but he may find it tougher to master Colonial on his debut. Merrick has played here in each of the last two years (shooting 64 in 2007) and has a 8-3-0 1st round h2h advantage over the Australian.

Jim Furyk to beat Paul Casey -110 @ WSEX [available widely]  LOST by 2
Casey may now be the #3 in the World Rankings, but it should be one round too many for him to continue his form of last week on the European Tour. He already had a great record around Wentworth whereas he is making his course debut this week and the jet-lag shouldn't help either. Furyk is a regular in this event, losing in a playoff to Rory Sabbatini two years ago, and is in good form having finished in the top-5 in the Players Championship last time out.

Tim Clark to beat Vijay Singh -115 @ Carib  WON by 1
This will be Vijay's first visit since 2002 and with his form still some way below its best, it is hard to see him competing for the title this week. He has failed to finish ahead of the South African in any event this year and with Clark having a very good record on this course - e.g. he was 2nd last year - he should finish behind Clark once again this week.

Stewart Cink to beat Trevor Immelman +100 @ Stan James and Boyle Sports [tie loses]  WON by 2
Two players below their best this year, but the round-by-round h2h stats are of note. Cink leads Immelman 5-2 in both the 1st and 2nd rounds, but the score is 1-3 and 0-3 (plus one tie) in the 3rd and 4th rounds, so it clear when to back Cink and when not to. And given that Immelman has played here only once (and missed the cut), while Cink has made the cut in all eleven previous appearances, Cink should again win these matches over the first two days.

 

Round 2 plays (1pt):

Ian Poulter to beat Tim Clark -115 @ Carib  LOST by 5

Steve Stricker to beat Tim Clark -125 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1

Vijay Singh to beat Brian Gay -138 @ Boyle Sports [tie loses]  WON by 7

Joe Ogilvie to beat Aron Price -130 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 1

John Merrick to beat James Nitties +110 @ Stan James [tie loses]  TIED

 

Round 3 plays (1pt):

Jim Furyk to beat Brian Davis -120 @ SkyBet [tie loses] [available generally]  WON by 3

Ian Poulter to beat James Nitties -125 @ Stan James, ToteSport and Boyle Sports [tie loses] [available generally]  WON by 5

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Anthony Kim -125 @ Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 1

Kevin Sutherland to beat James Driscoll -133 @ Bet365  WON by 2

Justin Leonard to beat Kevin Na -118 @ Unibet [available generally]  WON by 2

 

Round 4 plays (1pt):

Steve Stricker to beat Tim Clark +105 @ SkyBet [tie loses] [available @ Bet365, Paddy Power and Carib]  WON by 2

Steve Stricker to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ Five Dimes [also available @ Stan James]  WON by 4

Woody Austin to beat Jason Day +100 @ SkyBet [tie loses]  WON by 1

Lucas Glover to beat Jeff Overton -110 @ SkyBet [tie loses] [available generally]  LOST by 5

John Senden to beat Charlie Wi +100 @ Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek, Carib and WSEX]  LOST by 2

 

NOTES

Plays will typically be 1pt and cover only '2-ball' matches rather than '3-balls' matches. Note that '1pt' represents 'to win 1pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents '1pt staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds). If ties lose, this will be indicated.

Reasons will be given for round 1 plays, but thereafter the plays will be listed only - there is less time for handicapping between rounds, plus if I detail too many intra-round angles during the course of the season, the odds will surely be adjusted in future if the angles are profitable.