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Buy Geoff Ogilvy FP at 33 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 18.5, Loss 7.25 Pts Ogilvy plays in this event regularly but without much success. In 7 consecutive starts from 02, he has missed 4 cuts and finished no higher than 20th in the other 3 starts. He is a fairly low 33 due to a win and a 32nd place, the 32nd at Sony being an event he was favourite to win after a 66 in R1 (14 to buy on FP at that stage). Buy Zach Johnson FP at 40 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 14, Loss 13 Pts Far less course form to go on here but what we have is a WD after R1 in 07', a missed cut in 06', and a 24th in 05' helped by a low 66 in R4 that helped him climb 21 places. Johnson is another winner from 09' and in both cases those wins seem to be factored into the prices. There will be better courses to suit Johnson's game than Scottsdale and he will need to putt really well to contend on a course where his short driving will be a hinder to him. Sell J B Holmes over Ryuji Imada 18H R1 MB at 0 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 25, Loss 12.5 Pts Holmes has a record here of 1/MC/1 so he obviously likes the place but of course we are only interested in the R1 score against his opponent. In those 3 starts he shot 68s when winning and 74 the other year. His wins included a 64, two 65's and two 66's later in the week so he has started slowly in comparison each time out (his MC had a R2 67). Imada has shot 5 rounds of 69 or better in 11 starts here and has an 08' H2H record of 9-7 in both R1 matches and tournaments against Holmes. Their 2009 season consists of a 5th last 29th at the Mercedes and a MC for Holmes which is much poorer than Imada's 18/23/34 start. Sell Angel Cabrera over Joe Ogilvie 18H R1 MB at 3 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U -34, Profit 18.5 Pts Cabrera leads H2Hs 4-2 in 08' and Ogilvie, the only one of the two to play the event has 4 MCs in 6 starts, the others being a 12th and a 32nd place finish. I am still inclined to go with Ogilvie though as his scoring record over 2008 is better than Cabrera's and his overall finishing average is only slightly behind. 3-6 just seems a point or two too high. Sell Ben Curtis over Brian Gay 18H R1 MB at 0 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U -19, Profit 9.5 Pts H2H's show Curtis the better player in 08' with an 8-4 event lead, but R1 shows a 6-6 tie and one of those wins for Gay both in R1 and overall was here last year where Gay finished 9 shots better, 7 in the first round alone. Curtis's record here is cut,20,62,65 whereas Gay shows results of 4 Top 40s in 7 starts with only one missed cut. In 09' so far Gay has finished 18th (out of 33), 5th and 19th. Curtis is making his first start in 4 months on Tour. 2-3-0 -5 Pts |
