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Tournament Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Neil

Odds:Matchups

 
 
Verizon Heritage

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Bets: 8     Wins: 5     Losses: 3     Profit/Loss = + 5.26 pts

Stake 3pts Glover to beat Sabbatini -110 @ Ladbrokes, InterTops Lose
Glover has shown a bit of promise of late with a number of decent finishes. He has good GIR stats and is a decent scrambler so should be suited by this course. And in his previous starts here he has three top-20 finishes. Sabbatini did perform well last week at the Masters but has generally been a disappointment this season. His lack of accuracy is a concern and in his only previous visit here, back in 2001 he missed the cut.   

Stake 3pts Na to beat Weekley -110 @ Ladbrokes Lose
Despite winning this event for the past two years Weekley's form this season has been so poor that he is crying out to be opposed. Na has shown excellent consistency for a number of months now. He has a superb short game and three good finishes from five previous visits so he is a sound choice to oppose Weekley with. 

Stake 3pts Verplank to beat Hoffman -111 @ Expekt, InterTops Win
Hoffman has been in excellent form this season but I don't expect this to be a course that will favour his game. Although he is a decent scrambler his game revolves around power and his lack of accuracy may well get punished this week. In his only previous start here back in 2006 he missed the cut. Verplank has been in decent form of late, has the ideal game for this course, never misses this event and has only twice missed the cut here with a number of decent finishes. 

Further Plays

Stake 2pts Els to beat Casey +116 @ Pinnacle Lose
Stake 2pts Love to beat McIlroy +138 @ Coral Win
These two plays are primarily because the odds in no way take into account the value of the course form that Els and Love possess. And from past evidence previous course form has an increased importance here. Love and Els have both repeatedly shown and expressed a liking for this course and their overall games are not in bad shape. No matter how good Casey and McIlroy, having no course experience will be a hinderence this week.     

Stake 3pts Garrigus to beat Quinney -120 @ FiveDimes Win
You wouldn't expect that Garrigus would have the type of game to be suited by the course but he has played here twice and has creditable finishes of 23rd and 27th. It is probably inmportant to bear in mind that Baddeley won here back in 2006 and was 2nd last season and he is hardly accurate. But he knows how to get round this course and his putting was on fire. Garridus is long and somewhat wayward but he hits greens in regulation, he knows how to get round here and he is a good putter. He's also won 9 out of the last 11 h2h's with Quinney who has played here twice with finishes of mc and 49th.  

Stake 3pts Goggin to beat Pampling -118 @ Unibet Win
Prioir to missing the cut last week (no disgrace on his Augusta debut) Goggin had been showing good consistency and his ball striking has been excellent this season. He did miss the cut on his first two visits here but it looks like he has sussed out this course as his two latest visits have resulted in 29th place and 17th place finishes. He's accurate and a decent putter who is likely to go well again this week. Pampling has missed the last two cuts, his previous form here is inconsistent, he doesn't have the accuracy of Goggin and is not the nest scrambler. I make Goggin around -130 here.  

Stake 3pts D Wilson to beat Snedeker -110 @ FiveDimes Win
Snedeker has been a big disappointment this season. Every now and again he shows glimpses of form but rarely follows up the following week. He was expected to put in a reasonable showing last week at the Masters after performing well there previously and folloing his 17th place finish at Bay Hill, but yet again he failed to make the cut. His stats are all over the place that it is difficult to pick out where the weakness is in his game and his previous form here is also mixed. Wilson looks a far safer choice, slightly more consistent, more accurate than Snedeker and a very good putter at times and has three decent finishes from five previous visits here.