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18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

 
 
Mercedes-Benz Championship
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It is the start of the season and apart from a few off-season events, there has been very little action on which to base the form of the players. On that basis, plays will typically only be 1pt for the four weeks of the season. Note that "1pt" represents "to win 1pt" if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents "1pt staked" if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds). If ties lose, this will be indicated.

Reasons will typically be given for round 1 plays (unless there are a large number of them), but thereafter the plays will probably be listed only - there is less time for handicapping between round, plus if I detail too many intra-round angles during the course of the season, the odds will surely be adjusted in future if the angles are profitable.

0-8; -8.60pts 

Round 1 plays (1pt):

Stewart Cink to beat K.J. Choi -110 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 3
Opposing Choi who did set a course record 63 in 2003, but since he has returned to this event in the last three years, he has been very poor apart from the 1st round in 2007. Last year only two players finished lower down the leaderboard than the Korean. And it not that his form is very good: he finished 35th in the limited field HSBC Champions Tournament, missed the cut in the Singapore Open and was over-par in three of four rounds in the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Cink has always been consistent in this event and has two top-5 finish and one further top-10 finish in four starts in Hawaii since 2005.

Stewart Cink to beat Trevor Immelman -108 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 2
Backing Cink to also beat Immelman who did finish 3rd in his previous sole appearance (2007), but came into that in much better form in the previous two months. If his iron play is not as sharp as it was, he should struggle on these extremely large greens.

Justin Leonard to beat K.J. Choi +100 @ Carib  LOST by 3
Opposing Choi with Leonard who has played in this event seven times in the last 10 years and has a worst finish of only 19th. The extremely large greens clearly suit Leonard, who is a much better putter than Immelman.

Daniel Chopra to beat K.J. Choi +110 @ Paddy Power  LOST by 9
Can't pass up these odds on the defending champion who stated before last year's event that he loved the course. Swing changes last season may have seen his form collapse, but a six-week break and return the scene of his victory may just be the tonic.

Brian Gay to beat D.J. Trahan -110 @ Five Dimes  LOST by 2
Neither has played in any event for a long time and Gay may struggle to shoot low scores on such a long course, but this is primarily a play against Trahan. In his one previous appearance (2007) his best round of the week was 75 and only Ben Curtis and Arron Oberholser (withdrew with a back injury) finished below him on the leaderboard. He has shown very little form since winning the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic in January last year to suggest that he will perform much better this week.

 

No round 2 plays.

No round 3 plays.

 

Round 4 plays (1pt unless stated):

Brian Gay to beat Dustin Johnson -112 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 4

Anthony Kim to beat Ernie Els -120 @ Paddy Power  [2pts]  TIED

Will MacKenzie to beat Ernie Els +145 @ Pinnacle  LOST by 2

Camilo Villegas to beat Justin Leonard -120 @ The Greek  LOST by 3