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8-8; -0.07pts Round 1 plays (2pts): Camilo Villegas to beat Hunter Mahan +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Extrabet, SkyBet, Unibet and WSEX] LOST by 4
A decent price to back Villegas in this matchup. Mahan may be the better player at finishing tournaments, but Villegas is much better at the start of tournaments: he has shot the lower 1st round score in 11 of their last 14 common events and has been inside the top-30 after the opening round in each of his last eight starts. Add in Villegas' consistency in Majors - he has made the cut in his last six, whereas Mahan has missed the cut in four of seven since the start of last season - and this does look a value price. Justin Rose to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ William Hill LOST by 2
Rose is another who famously starts events better than he finishes them. He is also in better form than McIlroy with finishes of 16th, 13th and 29th over the last five weeks versus 46th, 47th and 68th (of 79) for McIlroy, plus Rose is also a very good Majors player: he has finished in the top-20 in 7 of the last 11 Majors. Pat Perez to beat Ross Fisher +134 @ Unibet [also available @ Extrabet] LOST by 1
Decent price to back a player who finished ahead of Fisher last week and has been playing well in recent weeks following his return to the Tour after tearing his ankle ligaments in May. Perez has a decent record in this event - 6th and 18th within the last four years - and while Fisher did finish 5th in the U.S. Open in June, he has never finished in the top-25 in any of his other 11 strokeplay events in the U.S. Round 2 plays (2pts): Fred Couples to beat Alvaro Quiros +135 @ Extrabet [tie loses] WON by 2 Justin Rose to beat Sean O'Hair -105 @ Carib LOST by 3 Chad Campbell to beat Mathew Goggin +115 @ Carib [also available @ Extrabet, Pinnacle, The Greek and WSEX] WON by 7 Graeme McDowell to beat Mathew Goggin -111 @ Bet365 WON by 5 Round 3 plays (1pt): Ernie Els to beat Ross Fisher -105 @ Bet365 WON by 3 Camilo Villegas to beat Angel Cabrera +110 @ WSEX [also available @ Stan James, Pinnacle and Carib] TIED Ernie Els to beat Ian Poulter +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Paddy Power, Carib and WSEX] WON by 6 K.J. Choi to beat Soren Kjeldsen +105 @ Five Dimes [also available @ Carib] LOST by 3 Vijay Singh to beat Ross Fisher +105 @ Pinnacle LOST by 2 Round 4 plays (1pt): Robert Allenby to beat Luke Donald +105 @ Five Dimes WON by 1 Francesco Molinari to beat Steve Flesch -111 @ Bet365 WON by 4 Hunter Mahan to beat Retief Goosen +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Five Dimes and WSEX] WON by 6 Hiroyuki Fujita to beat Ben Curtis +140 @ William Hill [available widely] LOST by 5 Hiroyuki Fujita to beat Michael Allen -105 @ Five Dimes, Pinnacle and WSEX LOST by 5
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