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Sell Padraig Harrington over Rich Beem 18H R1 MB at 9 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 19, Loss 5 Pts Harrington came back to form, finally, at the weekend finishing 2nd to Woods in the WGC. He was 1 up with three to play though and took an 8 on the 16th, and that, coupled with the fact he admits he now needs rest to cope with the mental side of last week means he is value to oppose at this price. Beem leads 5-3 in events and 7-1 in R1 scoring over 12 months and is a course winner having won here in 02. Sell Jerry Kelly over K.J. Choi 18H R1 MB at 2 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U -22, Profit 12 Pts Kelly has been in form recently finishing 3/5/11 whereas Choi has fared no better than 45th since the Memorial in May. However, Choi has three top 12's in 5 PGA Championships although going further back he missed the cut when Beem won here. Kelly, though, has never finished in the Top 25 in 12 starts in this event and i feel that current form aside Choi is more suited to this course. Sell Ross Fisher over Pat Perez 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 13, Loss 4.5 Pts Perez has been injured of late but noticably he finished 22nd in a good field last week in Akron whilst Fisher was 3 shots and 21 positions behind. H2Hs have Perez up in events and in R1 pairings and getting 4 pts start for supporting the "home" player is a touch of value. Sell Oliver Wilson over Will Mackenzie 18H R1 MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 37, Loss 16 Pts Going with another "home" player here with Willie Mac getting 5 points from Wilson. No particular stats to peruse as Wilson has only played on this tour 7 times with very little success. He has done well in WGC events and finished 11th last week so that has to be allowed for, but 5 is too big given Wilson is not one of the bigger "foreigners" coming to play this event this week. Sell Phil Mickelson over David Toms 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U -25, Profit 14.5 Pts This price is a touch high given the fact Mickelson has played little golf during the summer and that he came back to the tour last week and finished 7 shots behind Toms. This put Toms in the lead in H2Hs over 12 months at 5-4 and he has also won 5 and tied 1 in R1. Toms has posted 7 Top 10s in 2009 including two 2nd place finishes in June. Mickelson is the better player of course but currently, and given recent circumstances, he shouldn't be a 4pt favourite. R2 Sell Phil Mickelson over David Toms 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 13, Loss 4.5 Pts Mickelson was poor yesterday, Toms was steady, so given the fact we only lose 1pt from yesterday's prices, the value is arguably higher than in R1 Sell Charl Schwartzel over Alastair Forsyth 18H R1 MB at 3 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 25, Loss 11 Pts Forsyth came into this with a loss of form and various injuries suffered during the year but won yesterday fairly easily by three strokes and, like the Toms bet, is only one point worse off than R1. Sell Ross Fisher over Pat Perez 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 43, Loss 19.5 Pts Same reasoning applies as yesterday and with Perez leading for most of the round it suggests the 4 is good value Sell Mathew Goggin over Chad Campbell 18H R1 MB at 0 with Extrabet for 0.5 Pts M/U -31, Profit 15.5 Pts Yesterday Campbell was a 1-4 favourite in places but with a score of 74 to Goggin's 69 the prices have nearly reversed. The price, in my opinion, shouldn't have changed that much on the basis of 18 holes of golf and the "choice" prices elsewhere seem more correct. -18.5 Pts 3-6-0 |
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