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9-5; +3.13pts Round 1 plays (1pt) Phil Mickelson to beat Anthony Kim -160 @ The Greek [also available @ William Hill] TIED
Ignoring his Houston Open blowout because it was the week before The Masters, Phil's last four strokeplay events read 1st, 1st, 5th and 5th and he does have a good record on this course. That cannot be said for Kim and whose last top-15 finish was four months ago. Briny Baird to beat Oliver Wilson -123 @ Unibet [also available @ Stan James] VOID (Wilson dns)
A top-5 finish here last year and a runners-up spot at the Verizon Heritage when he started using the belly putter points to a decent effort from Baird. Wilson is making his course debut and that is never easy around Sawgrass, particularly when not at the top of your game. Ian Poulter to beat Rory McIlroy -110 @ Bet365 and Paddy Power WON by 7
McIlroy should have the same difficulties on his course debut and his form has also dropped over recent weeks. Poulter, by contrast, has finished 20th, 13th and 5th in his last three starts on the PGA Tour and has finished in the top-30 in each of the last three years here. Boo Weekley to beat Trevor Immelman -125 @ Pinnacle and WSEX [also available @ SkyBet, Stan James and Unibet] TIED
With previous form being so important on this idiosynchratic course, it is easy to oppose Immelmen who has started here only twice (2003 and 2007) and missed the cut both times. His recent form is also unimpressive next to Weekley's who has finished in the top-15 in each of the last three weeks on Tour. Luke Donald to beat Rory McIlroy -130 @ Carib [also available @ William Hill and The Greek] TIED
A runners-up finish last time out to go with a couple of top-10 finishes in February and it looks as though Donald is slowly returning to the form that saw him in the World top-10. On a course that suits - he finished 2nd in 2005 - he have the advantage over McIlroy this week. Round 2 plays (1pt): Luke Donald to beat Rory McIlroy -125 @ The Greek and Carib [also available @ William Hill] WON by 7 Chad Campbell to beat Todd Hamilton -140 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Unibet] WON by 1 Nick Watney to beat Rory McIlroy +100 @ SkyBet [tie loses] LOST by 1 Ben Crane to beat Ross Fisher -110 @ Stan James [tie loses] WON by 1 Rocco Mediate to beat Jeff Quinney -120 @ FiveDimes LOST by 1 Round 3 plays (1pt): Bob Estes to beat Martin Laird -125 @ Ladbrokes [tie loses] [available generally] LOST by 1 David Toms to beat Angel Cabrera -133 @ Bet365 TIED Rod Pampling to beat Nathan Green -110 @ Bet365, CentreBet, Expekt and BlueSq [tie loses] [available generally] LOST by 3 Kevin Na to beat Angel Cabrera +113 @ William Hill [available generally] WON by 3 Fredrik Jacobson to beat Dustin Johnson -130 @ FiveDimes WON by 6 Round 4 plays (1pt): Steve Stricker to beat Zach Johnson -120 @ Paddy Power [available generally] WON by 1 Bubba Watson to beat Johnson Wagner -118 @ Expekt [tie loses] [available generally] WON by 4 Ernie Els to beat Stephen Ames -125 @ Bet365 TIED Kevin Na to beat Daniel Chopra -120 @ Bet365 [also available @ SkyBet] WON by 3 Kevin Sutherland to beat Daniel Chopra -145 @ FiveDimes LOST by 2
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