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Tournament Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Neil

Odds:Matchups

 
 
The Players Championship
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Bets: 8     Wins: 6     Losses: 2     Profit/Loss = + 7.03 pts

Stake 2pts Ames to beat Sabbatini -110 @ BetFred Win
Stake 2pts Verplank to beat Sabbatini -110 @ Expekt Win
Neither Ames nor Verplank have been their usual consistent selves this season but both have shown signs of form and have good records in this event. They also both have a game based around shot-making suited to this course. Sabbatini showed his lack of consistency again last week and can't be helped by having such a poor record in Florida. In h2h's in this state Ames leads 19-4 and Verplank leads 16-2.  

Stake 2pts Donald to beat Harrington -110 @ William Hill Win
Stake 2pts Furyk to beat Harrington -110 Pinnacle Win
Harrington's poor form continued last week and he looks opposable again this week on a course where he hasn't shown much since back in 2004. Both Furyk and Donald have been in good form this season and should have the game for the course. Donald has three good previous finishes here and Furyk has been a model of consistency in his previous starts here.  

Stake 3pts Karlsson to beat Z Johnson +120 @ Coral Lose
Although Johnson must be feeling down after last weeks final round he looks to have a tough character and should bounce back and I expect another decent performance from him this week. Despite that this price is just too large for a player of Karlsson's ability. He has put in a number of solid performances again this season, he was 6th here last season despite opening up with a disappointing 77 and he currently leads Johnson 9-5 in h2h's on this tour.

Stake 3pts Villegas to beat Kim -107 @ Pinnacle Win
Both of these players are arguably over-rated on what they have acheived to date on this tour. And while Kim probably has the greater potential it is Villegas who deserves the support having the better consistency and a game that should be more suited to this course. For all his power Kim can be very wayward off the tee and will not be favoured by the tree-lined fairways of Sawgrass. He missed the cut here in 2007 and although started well last season he tailed after two particularly poor rounds during the weekend. Villegas has shown some decent consistency of late and his DA and GIR stats have been very encouraging. He didn't shw much in nhis last two starts here but did finish 3rd here back in 2006. He's also won 9 out of the last 12 h2h's with Kim. 

Stake 3pts J Singh to beat O Wilson -118 @ Unibet Void
Singh leads Wilson 11-6 in all h2h's in the last 12 months. Although his form has tailed off of late he is generally very consistent and has a good solid record on this tour. Wilson has shown mixed form so far this season and his record on this tour is poor with finishes of mc/36/mc/mc/70/mc hardly inspires confidencne for his debut on this course. 

Further Plays

Stake 3pts Gay to beat Curtis -120 @ Stan James Lose
Curtis has been in reasonable form this season and has been extremely consistent. As has Gay but his form has been comparably better so far this season and won ast time out. Gay has a game that should be suited to this course, holds an 8-2 h2h lead in the state and in the four previous h2h's on this course he has finished ahead of Curtis on each occasion. 

Stake 3pts Furyk to beat Stricker -118 @ Centrebet Win
Both players are in excellent form but Furyk has the slightly better overall ability leading 12-4 in h2h's over the last 12 months. But the primary reason is the difference in previous course form. Furyk has been superbly consistent in his previous starts here while Stricker has generall been a bit of a disappointment. In previous starts here Furyk leads an impressive 9-1.