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7-2; +4.20pts Round 1 plays (1pt): Tim Clark to beat Henrik Stenson -125 @ FiveDimes WON by 3
Opposing Stenson who has been very hit-and-miss this year. He followed two top-3s in the Middle East with a first round exit in the World Matchplay and finished virtually last in his next event; he then finished 3rd in the Houston Open, but then was nowhere in his next two events before winning the Players Championship. Since then, he has played in two European Tour events and missed the cut badly both times. The week before a Major, he's far more likely to have another 'miss' particularly with no previous course experience. Clark, by contrast, has been extremely consistent this year and held the lead after 54 holes last year on this course. Sergio Garcia to beat Henrik Stenson -120 @ Carib [available generally] WON by 3
Garcia has also been much more consistent and having finished one shot out of the playoff last year, he looks to be a better value bet this week (and next). Jeff Overton to beat James Nitties +100 @ Stan James [tie loses] WON by 2
Backing Overton for a good week, particularly as he is not using this event as a tune-up for next week. Experience tends to fare better than youth on this course, but he has still managed to make every cut in three attempts, including a top-10 finish two years ago. He has been playing well recently and if the conditions are wet, as expected, he should not struggle ... the last time that he played an opening round in the rain (2008 Turning Stone Resort Championship), he held the lead at the end of the day. Jeff Overton to beat Ted Purdy -115 @ Carib WON by 5
With equivalent current form, this play is based on the forecasted weather conditions and course form. Purdy returned to this event two years ago for the first since 2004, but has fared very badly: his average score over the last two years here is 78.3; and the last time that he opened an event in wet conditions was also at the 2008 Turning Stone Resort Championship ... he finished the day 11 shots behind Overton. Jeff Overton to beat Jerry Kelly -120 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Opposing Kelly who has played in this event just six times and with good reason: he has finished inside the top-70 just once. He may have shot the lower first round score last week, but that was the first time in eight common events and is unlikely to happen again on this course. Round 2 plays (1pt): Derek Fathauer to beat Cameron Peck -135 @ FiveDimes WON by 2 Jerry Kelly to beat Jose Maria Olazabal -125 @ FiveDimes WON by 2 Jeff Overton to beat James Nitties -110 @ Stan James [tie loses] TIED Tim Herron to beat John Daly -160 @ Carib [also available @ Pinnacle and WSEX] LOST by 3 Retief Goosen to beat Chris DiMarco -135 @ Pinnacle and Carib [also available @ WSEX] WON by 1
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