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Sell Phil Mickelson over Cameron Beckman 18H R1 MB at 9 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 4.5 Pts Mickelson will be a bit rusty having not played for a few weeks and will have an intense media spotlight on him after the recent personal news regarding his wife's health. The only reason he is playing this week is undoubtedly the fact he will want some match practice prior to the 2nd major next week. His record round here is sparse as he has only played once, missing the cut in 01'. Beckman plays here regularly, without much success it has to be admitted, having missed 6 cuts of 10, but with all the off field stuff 9 is too high. Their H2Hs show 11-4 over 2 years and 2-2 over 1 year suggesting a more realistic price is about 6-9. Sell Ben Crane over Robert Garrigus 18H R1 MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2.5 Pts You would probably be surprised to learn that Garrigus has a better H2H record than Crane in the last year and although he hasnt had a great start to this year, Garrigus did finish 15th at the Byron Nelson. His stats and record suggest there aren't 5 pts between them in spread terms. Sell Retief Goosen over Paul Goydos 18H R1 MB at 5 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 22, Loss 8.5 Pts Goosen, having went through a horrendous spell over a couple of seasons, seemed to have got back on track in 09' with a win at the transitions, 11th at Quail Hollow and 3rd at Pebble. However, he is just coming off of two missed cuts back on the European Tour and with the major he is most likely to feel confident about next week he may just be value to oppose tomorrow giving up 5pts to Goydos. His opponent has three top 15's in 10 starts here and that is better form than his general form over all courses. Sell Bob Estes over Michael Allen 18H R1 MB at 4 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 16, Loss 6 Pts H2Hs show a 9-9 tie over the last year and Allen has only lost 5 of the 18 Thursday opening rounds in that timespan. Course form shows Estes is playing one of his favourite weeks, hence the price, as he has five Top 10s here over 12 years but 4 is still particularly high given that it is only on course form that the players differ greatly. 2-2-0 - 7.5Pts |
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