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7-9; -4.11pts Round 1 plays (1pt): Steve Marino to beat Boo Weekley -160 @ FiveDimes LOST by 5
Weekley's injured shoulder has resulted in him failing to make the cut in any of his last three starts, but even before that Marino had been the dominant player in this matchup, finishing behind Weekley only twice in their previous ten common events and shooting the lower 1st round score in seven of those ten events. Add in their course form - 13th and 62nd for Marino versus mc (by 10 shots) for Weekley - and there is still value at these odds. Kenny Perry to beat Aaron Baddeley -162 @ Pinnacle WON by 8
Missed cuts in his last two events since withdrawing from the Texas Open because of a wrist injury and missed cuts in his last two visits to River Highlands point to another poor week for Baddeley. He cannot compete with Perry in terms of form and the short odds are certainly jusified given Perry's record on this course: he has six top-15 finishes in his last seven visits. Stewart Cink to beat Dustin Johnson -120 @ Pinnacle [also available @ William Hill and WSEX] LOST by 3
Johnson has been in reasonable form recently and did finish 34th on his course debut last year, but he is still a long way short of matching Cink on the course. They have played 20 common events on the PGA Tour, Cink leads Johnson 16-3-1 h2h. Stewart Cink to beat Brian Gay -125 @ Paddy Power LOST by 5
Gay has even better form than Johnson, but his finishing positions on this course have been very poor: mc, 36th, 52nd, mc, 63rd, mc, mc. These seem fair odds given Cink's performances on this course. Scott Verplank to beat Jerry Kelly -120 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX] LOST by 2
It was reported on the PGA Tour twitter site that Kelly was going to withdraw from this event to be with Chris Smith [his wife was killed and two of his children critically injured in a car accident on Sunday], but he couldn't get a flight. In normal circumstances, I would have Verplank as a clear favourite for this matchup; this adds to the expectancy that Kelly will not be staying in Connecticut very long. Round 2 play (1pt): Joe Ogilvie to beat Jay Williamson -135 @ FiveDimes LOST by 5 Round 3 plays (1pt): Paul Goydos to beat Colt Knost -172 @ Unibet WON by 6 Kevin Streelman to beat John Merrick +110 @ SkyBet [tie loses] LOST by 3 Kevin Streelman to beat Bryce Molder -130 @ FiveDimes LOST by 1 D.J. Trahan to beat Chris Riley -116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ WSEX] LOST by 2 Chez Reavie to beat Colt Knost -105 @ WSEX [also available @ Pinnacle] LOST by 4 Round 4 plays (1pt): Hunter Mahan to beat Anthony Kim -121 @ Pinnacle [available widely] WON by 3 Kenny Perry to beat Paul Goydos -149 @ Unibet [available widely] WON by 4 Michael Letzig to beat Colt Knost -143 @ Unibet [available widely] WON by 4 Scott Verplank to beat Matt Bettencourt -110 @ SkyBet [tie loses] [available widely] WON by 7 Hunter Mahan to beat Zach Johnson -125 @ Bet365 [also available @ FiveDimes, Stan James and Paddy Power] WON by 3
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