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Stake 4pts Allenby to beat Watney +100 @ Bet365 
It's reasonable to assume that Allenby will put in another solid performance again this week. He remains in ngood and consistent form, his ball striking was excellent again last week and he has had some pretty good performances in this event in the past. And his suspect putting may not be such an issue on nthis tough course where getting to the green in as few shots as possible should be the most important attribute. Watney has shown little in his two previous appearances in this event and although his GIR stats are good his lack of accuracy is a worry with the graduated rough. Allenby should be around -115 to -120.  

Stake 3pts Mahan to beat Cabrera -110 @ Boyle Sports 
No primary reason for this play other than just an accumulation of observations that make Mahan a value bet. Cabrera's current form is okay but two missed cuts leading up this event is hardly great preparation. Mahan has been in good ofrm and showed solid consistency throughout this season. Mahan's stats show his game to be in good shape at the moment while Cabrera's driving accuracy has been truly woeful of late and rarely mananges to hit more than 50% of the fairways. He did win nthis event in 2007 but other than a strong finish in 2001 his form in this event has been rather average. Mahan has solid showings from his last two starts. Mahan should be -120 to -125. 

Stake 3pts Clark to beat Leonard -120 @ William Hill 
Both Clark and Leonard have been in excellent form this season showing admirable class and consistency. But the class difference is highlighted by Clark leading 7-3 in h2h's despite Leonard's solid form. Both players have decent records in this event but again Clark comes out ahead 4-2 in h2h's in this event. They both have similar games so the course setup shouldn't have too much of an impact but Clark's ball striking looks that bit better of late and he is expected to come out in front again. I make him a -130 shot.   

Stake 3pts Els to beat Z Johnson -110 @ Expekt 
I'm certainly not convinced of Els's ability to win tournaments any more but it's hard to ignore his record in this event and his recent performances. He has actually been very consistent this season although a few sloppy displays have crept in. But he has performing well of late and is ball striking has been exceptional. And with a very solid record with numerous top twenty finishes he looks a good candidate for another strong showing this week. Johnson has a very poor record in this event and although in general he has performed well this season the length of this course maens that his long iron game will need to be in top form for him to contend this week and the stats just don't back that up at the moment. Els should be around -120 to -125.  

Stake 5pts Furyk to beat Goosen +100 @ FiveDimes 
Furyk's form has peaked quite nicely of late and his stats show his game to be in very solid shape. He has rather inconsistent form in this event, usually resulting in a top five finish or not showing much. But given his current form and the strong state of his game I fancy the former this week. Goosen remains in infuriating form. He is very inconsistent and regularly throws in one good round to accompany three rounds of mediocraty. His stats aren't great at the moment and like Furyk he has inconsistent form in this event, but it's more like win or bust with him. Furyk leads 5-3 in h2h's this season, 9-5 over the last 12 months and 6-5 in this event. I certainly make him favourite and probably around a -120 to -125 shot this week.   

Stake 4pts Villegas to beat McIlroy +100 @ Bet365 (now also available @ Stan James)
I just can't have McIlroy as favourite here. Despite playing well on his last couple of starts back in Europe that lack of accuracy and dare I say it lack of composure could well count against him this week. Villegas has been consistent throughout this season without really challenging the leaderboard. But his all round game is pretty solid and he has performed with great credit on his last couple of appearances in this event. I make him -115 here.    

Stake 3pts V Singh to beat Stenson -110 @ Expekt 
At the beginning of last month Stenson was giving indications that he was about to be a major contender but three badly missed cuts suggest that he is going to have another mid-season slump. At the same time Vijay's game was going nowhere but he has since since rediscovered some of that old sparkle. Vijay's ball striking has actually remianed pretty decentn throughout the season but his short game has been very poor at times. This week should be all about ball striking and given his solid previous form in this event he should be good enough for Stenson who has shown very little in this event. I make Singh -120 this week. 

Further Plays

Stake 2pts Pampling to beat Appleby -105 @ FiveDimes 

Stake 3pts Slocum to beat Levet +100 @ FiveDimes