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Buy Paul Casey FP at 35 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 70, Profit 17.5 Pts Casey is up to #3 in the World and arguments can be made for and against that position. Because of this and because he is considered Europe's best hope of success he is a lowly 35 on Sporting's FP list and that is possibly in expectation of some support. It isn't the best field there has been for this major but Casey's record in this event is poor. An average FP of just under 50 in 6 starts against his upturn in form this year suggests to me high 30's, priced along with Goosen, Garcia and Els, would be a fairer pitch. Sell Camilo Villegas on Sporting Index's "Winners Circle" market at 182 for 0.5 Pts M/U 155, Profit 13.5 Pts This is a market where the winner M/U's at 0, the remainder M/U at 100 + 5pts for every stroke they finish behind the winner, with it being effectively +10pts/stroke behind the R2 leader, as scores are doubled, if they miss the cut. Villegas has made the cut every week now since the Honda in March and has averaged 10 strokes behind the winner in that time. At a price of 182 we are effectively betting that he finishes within 16 strokes of the winner to make a profit, and it would be fair to assume that the bet is a likely winner if he makes the cut. His US Open record reads Cut/59/26/9 so it has improved year on year and his important stats in relation to this type of course read 17th in Total Driving, 20th in GIR and 7th in ball striking. I personally think Villegas has a better chance than the prices imply over all the markets available and this may be the one that best maximises his chances. Buy Lucas Glover on Sporting Index's "Wire to Wire Leaderboard" market at 4 for 0.5 Pts (see below) A speculative play on a player who has good stats for compatibility to the venue. He falls in the top 30 in this field for all the main categories bar putting but putting can sometimes take a back seat at this event to the need to get it to the green without getting into the sort of trouble that awaits wayward drivers. Glover was 2nd at Quail Hollow and 3rd at the Buick, two events where the course isn't a birdie fest but has yet to make a weekend in 3 US Open starts, hence the low price. Given those previous US Open results this is the least volatile market to support him in on the week that matters if he can re-produce those stats. Sell Andres Romero over Eduardo Romero 18H R1 MB at 5 with Extrabet for 0.5 Pts M/U 19, Loss 7 Pts The organisers had some fun with their "draw" and one that popped up was a meeting of the Romero's and Cabrera would no doubt have been the 3rd member of the group had he not won the Masters. Romero junior has been opposed by us regularly purely because he has a habit of occasionally throwing in big scores. His results in 09' have been poor with a 3rd at Riviera his only Top 30 in 10 starts. Romero senior has been playing on the Champions Tour with some success with a win already posted, but it is his ability to get round the course better than his younger opponent that makes me feel the 5 is value to play at. Sell Francesco Molinari over Simon Dyson 18H R2 MB at 3 with Extrabet for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 1.5 Pts Sell Rod Pampling over Boo Weekley 18H R2 MB at 2 with Spreadex for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 1 Pt Sell John Mallinger over Jose Manuel Lara 18H R2 MB at 5 with Sporting Index for 0.5 Pts M/U 0, Profit 2.5 Pts Pre R3 :- Sell Lucas Glover on the Wire To Wire Leaderboard (only if already placed the buy trade above), at 78 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts (for info: Profit on the early closure = 18.5 Pts) Pre R4 :- Sell Lucas Glover on the Wire To Wire Leaderboard (only if already placed the buy trade above), at 112 with Sporting Index for 0.25 Pts (for info: Profit on the early closure = 27 Pts) 6-1-0, Profit 74.5 Pts |
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