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0-3; -9.20pts (system plays: 2-3-1) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Tom Gillis to beat Michael Letzig -130 @ Five Dimes LOST by 2
Opposing Letzig in this position: 5th after the 1st round. He has only been in this position twice previously on the PGA Tour - in 2008, he led the Ginn sur Mer Classic after round 1, but then shot 74 on the Friday; more spectacularly, he was 5th after the 1st of the Memorial Tournament four weeks ago, but then shot 81 to miss the cut! That recent experience and the fact that he is 164th in the Money List so his 2011 Tour Card remains very unlikely unless he makes the most of this position mean that he will playing under great pressure today. With Gillis ninety places higher in the Money List, so without any immediate pressure, and in a good vein of form - made the cut in six of his last seven starts - Letzig looks rather unlikely to shoot a lower 2nd round score than Gillis for only the second time since the start of last season. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Moore tb Weekley -167 (L); Baddeley tb Pampling -115 (W)] Round 3 play (2pts): Robert Allenby to beat Nick Watney -110 @ The Greek [also available @ Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 1
Opposing Watney who fell from 1st round leader to 6th after 36 holes. He tried to once again over-power the course yesterday, but found it more difficult with the course drying out and he only hit 10 greens in regulation. With the course continuing to harden, he will need to change his course management or he will struggle again, but he does tend to struggle from this position: he has started the weekend in the top-10 on 21 occasions on the PGA Tour, from which position he has averaged over 72 in the 3rd round and moved closer to the lead by the end of the day only three times. Allenby has been impressive so far this week and looks to be in control of his game, so I'll back the world's 2nd worst golfing hypochrondriac (behind Padraig Harrington) - he once won three events in three weeks in 2005 when he claimed that he could hardly hold club because of the pain. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Marino tb Molder -108 (T); Pettersson tb Romero -110 (W); Holmes tb Watney +110 (L); Gay tb Watney +100 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): Justin Leonard to beat Charley Hoffman +100 @ Five Dimes LOST by 1
Opposing Hoffman after he fell from 4th to 33rd after a 75 yesterday and is now out of this event, eleven shots behind Rose. Nor does he have a particularly good record when out of contention: he did shoot 64 when starting the last round in 58th place, but otherwise he has averaged almost 74 in the final round in the last 10 occasions that he has started the final round outside the top-30. By contrast, Leonard does not tend to give up even when in his current 55th place position: in his last 10 occasions when he has started the final round outside the top-50, he has averaged 70.0 which should be enough to beat Hoffman. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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