18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

4-0; +8.10pts  (system plays: 5-2-1) 

Round 1 play (2pts):

Zach Johnson to beat Rory McIlroy +105 @ FiveDimes  WON by 6
Backing Corey Pavin's Wild Card pick in this matchup. Being a wild card selection can give a major and sudden boost to confidence (and thus form), of which the best example is Stewart Cink: in the last two occasions that he has been named as a wild card pick, he has gone on to finish 1st and 2nd (playoff loser) that week. Maybe Johnson will do the same - though this clearly points to Cink having a good week - and he has certainly shown enough form to suggest that he will go well this week: he finished 3rd in the PGA Championship, has finished ahead of McIlroy in both the Playoff events so far, and he finished 5th here last year. This is McIlroy's debut on this course so that should give the edge clearly to Johnson.

[unofficial rd1 system play: O'Hair tb Cabrera +100 (T); Rose tb Ogilvy +110 (W)]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Luke Donald to beat Martin Laird -163 @ SkyBet [available generally]  WON by 3
A short price, but Donald has been one of the most consistent players of the year (he ranks 6th in Scoring Average on the PGA Tour; Laird is 119th) and he showed that with another good round yesterday to finish in the top-10. Given that he has finished in the top-30 in his last seven visits to Cog Hill and still has a home in Illinois, he should be able to improve on his position even further. For Laird, this is his 5th consecutive week of tournament golf and while his 25th place finish last week was a good rebound from his choke at The Barclays, there is likely to be a fatigue factor. That was evident yesterday as he ranks almost last in driving accuracy and greens in regulation, but he still looks safe to start the Tour Championship in the top-10 of the FedEx Cup so I can see a coasting effort if he doesn't get the early birdies to make a significant move up the leaderboard (he is already nine shots off the lead).

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Casey tb Johnson Z +100 (W); Goosen tb Overton -130 (W); Casey tb Mahan -125 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Retief Goosen to beat Hunter Mahan -105 @ Bet365  WON by 4
Two players who tend to go in opposite directions from their current positions on 'Moving Day'. Goosen is currently 4th ... in the 70 previous occasions that he has started the 3rd round in the top-5, he has finished the event still in the top-5 in 71.4% of those occasions! Mahan is currently 9th ... (and it should be easier to stay in the top-10 rather than stay in the top-5) ... in the 19 previous occasions that he started the 3rd round in the top-10, he has finished the event still in the top-10 in just 47.4% of those occasions, including just once in the last five times that he has found himself in this position. P.S. Goosen is a very good wet weather player, which should be relevant given the forecast.

Round 4 play (2pts):

Dustin Johnson to beat Ryan Moore -150 @ SkyBet and Paddy Power [available generally]  WON by 4
Opposing Moore who holds a one-shot lead over the field, including playing partner Johnson. Moore has only ever held the in-running lead in a PGA Tour event at the end of a round on five occasions and he has never shot below 70 in the subsequent round. In the one occasion that he held the lead with one round to play - 2009 Houston Open - he shot 76 in the final round to drop out of the top-10 completely. Johnson didn't play particularly well when in this position two weeks ago, but his game is at a much higher level than Moore's and most bookies are pricing these two players at identical odds to win the event (some with Johnson favourite) even though Moore holds a one-shot lead. That shows the widespread expectation that Johnson should win this 18-hole match.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Goosen tb Clark -120 (W); Wi tb Moore +103 (L); Na tb Leishman +105 (W)]