|
3-2; +0.16pts Round 1 play (2pts): John Senden to beat Michael Sim -117 @ Pinnacle WON by 5
Both players were in good form on the Australasian Tour last month, Senden ending the year with a runners-up finish in the Australian PGA Championship, two shots ahead of Sim in 5th place. But this is a pro-am and previous experience of these on the PGA Tour points to a decisive advantage for Senden. Whereas Sim has played in only two of these on this Tour, missing the cut once and finishing 52nd, Senden record is quite different. In this event, for example, he has played in each of the last eight years and has finished: 13th, 57th, 41st, 6th, 5th, 33rd, 22nd, and 9th, averaging 68.30 over his 40 rounds. This should point to another high finish for Senden this week. Round 2 play (4pts): Rocco Mediate to beat Lee Janzen +102 @ Pinnacle LOST by 1
Good odds to oppose Janzen who may have played a great round yesterday on the tough course by far, but he is generally poor in this event - six missed cuts in the last eight years - and has missed the cut in four of his last five starts. Mediate certainly has the better record in this event and could easily bounce back under the cut around the far easier La Quinta course. Round 3 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Ryan Moore +102 @ Pinnacle [available generally] LOST by 1
Like Kuchar in this spot. He has been in the top-20 after two rounds on 20 occasions in the last three years, including this event, (as proof of his form, it is four times in the last four months despite the off-season) and he has finished the 3rd round outside the top-20 just once. Round 4 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Ryan Moore +108 @ Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib] WON by 2
Going back in with a repeat of yesterday's play. Everything written yesterday abour Kuchar still holds and he moved up two places to 15th. And it was also an extremely tight match yesterday with the lead swinging from one player to the next and back again with never more than one shot between them. At worst, this is a pick'em match, so these are very good odds in that situation. Round 5 play (2pts): Matt Kuchar to bea Kevin Streelman -128 @ Unibet [also available @ Pinnacle and WSEX] WON by 7
Continuing the ride the Kuchar train as he shot 65 yesterday to move up to 6th. This looks a very familiar position with him being 5th two weeks ago at the SBS Championship with one round to play and shooting 67 to finish 3rd. Streelman may have shot a low round on the Palmer Course yesterday, but this is not such a familar position for him: he started the final round inside the top-10 just once last year, the Byron Nelson Championship when he shot an over-par round and fell from three shots off the lead to ten. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
