2-0; +4.00pts (system plays: 1-3-1) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (2pts): Kevin Na to beat John Daly -150 @ Extrabet WON by 3 Na played better than Daly yesterday in every statistical department except driving distance and has been playing better than Daly for quite some time and that includes last week at St Andrews where Na finished ahead of Daly. Since 2007, Na has a 29-8-0 h2h record against Daly over 72 holes and even over the more volatile 2nd round scores, Na still holds a 22-9-1 h2h record against him. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Hoffman tb Cejka -130 (L); Walker tb Wheatcroft -135 (L); Lowery tb Stuard (T)] Round 3 play (4pts): Matt Kuchar to beat Blake Adams +105 @ 5Dimes TIED Strange line. Kuchar is 2nd in Scoring Average, 1st in All-Around Ranking, has six top-10 finishes this year and has missed just one cut in his last thirteen starts; Adams ranks 88th and 60th respectively in those two PGA Tour rankings, has two top-10 finishes, but blew a huge chance to win the Byron Nelson Championship when he followed Jason Day into the water on the last hole, and has missed his last four cuts. It is not as though Adams is playing any better than Kuchar - he ranks 106th in greens in regulation so far this week (Kuchar 36th) - and the fact that he is a shot ahead of Kuchar should be a disadvantage as Kuchar tees off over one hour earlier and the bad weather is expected to roll in after noon. [unofficial rd3 system play: Sutherland tb Chalmers -106 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Webb Simpson to beat Jeev Milkha Singh -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 1 The players' incentives are important when they are both so far out of contention: Simpson is 50th and Singh 56th. Let's look at how they have performed when starting the final round at 50th place or lower: Simpson has been in this situation four times since June 2009 and shot 65-68-70-67, jumping at least 12 places up the leaderboard each time; Singh has been in the same situation four times over the same period and shot 71-66-70-74, of which only the first was a PGA Tour event and he fell ten places down the leaderboard on that occasion. Simpson clearly has a tendency to commit fully to his final round in such a position, while it is not clear that Singh does. The other major incentive as we approach the Playoffs and then the Fall Series is the capacity to retain playing rights for 2011. Singh's position looks unsurmountable unless he can gain a top-5 finish before the season end and so a strong effort in the final round will make negligible difference to his cause. On the other hand, Simpson is 'on the bubble' at 125th in the Money List and so every dollar accrued is vital; he will have strong incentives to put full attention into every shot today. [unofficial rd4 system play: Henry tb Bettencourt -105 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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