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0-3; -11.60pts [system plays: 1-1-0] No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Chris DiMarco to beat Fred Funk -130 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Carib] LOST by 1
Backing DiMarco to continue the form that he displayed yesterday when finishing 5-under-par for his last eight holes and finish the day in 14th place. He hasn't missed a cut since May (13 starts) and, in an event in which he admits to enjoying greatly, he should play well around the Magnolia course today. Funk is playing in his 11th event in 13 weeks and while he matched DiMarco around the Palm course yesterday, he may struggle to do so again today given the extent of his recent schedule and his game which is not as sharp as it was in mid-summer. [unofficial rd2 system play: Gay tb Davis -120 (W); Tidland tb Wetterich -130 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Steve Flesch to beat Matt Every +105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 3
Every made the cut by a shot, but his rustiness was clear due to his three-month suspension following arrest for marijuana possession in July - he ranks 124th in greens in regulation - so it is difficult to see him scoring any better today. Flesch is a regular here and has a decent record at the Disney event, so is much more likely to move up the leaderboard. Round 4 play (4pts): Johnson Wagner to beat Robert Garrigus -110 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib] LOST by 3
In response to the question 'Game plan for tomorrow is just go as low as possible?', this was Garrigus' post-rd3 response: 'Yeah, foot to the floor. I can't try and make pars and like, oh, my gosh, I'm 122 on the Money List. I gotta go make birdies all day tomorrow.' He is clearly feeling the pressure and he knows no other way that to 'hit it and rip it' and that is normally not the best policy under pressure. In the previous eight occasions that he started the final round in the top-5, he has yet to win even though he held a 6-shot lead in the 2004 Louisiana Open and a 2-shot lead in this year's St Jude Classic, and he has averaged 72.88 in the final round. The last time that he started the final round in the top-5 was in the Turning Stone Resort Championship in August - he shot 74 and finished 41st. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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