|
2-2; +0.80pts (system plays: 0-2-0) Round 1 play (4pts): Tim Clark to beat K.J. Choi +110 @ Extrabet [also available @ Pinnacle and WSEX] TIED (Loss)
Good odds to back a player who is generally half the odds of his opponent in the outright market. After he won the Players Championship last time out and finished 2nd in this event in each of the last two years - last year, he held the lead after the 1st and 3rd rounds and only lost out to Stricker in a three-way playoff - there was always going to be plenty of support for Clark this week in the outright market. His previous three appearances at Colonial had yielded finishes of 12th, 21st and 14th, so he has arguably the best course form in this field as well as very impressive recent form. With Choi's ball-striking being not as impressive post-Masters, it really should take a poor round from Clark to lose this matchup. Round 2 play (4pts): Ryuji Imada to beat D.J. Trahan +115 @ Five Dimes WON by 1
Opposing Trahan who has been in poor form compared to Imada - a best finish of 69th in his last four events, whereas Imada has made all of his last four cuts and one shot off the lead after 36 holes of the Players Championship - and despite a two on a par-five in Monday's qualifying for the Open Championship, still missed out by six shots. He now lies in 59th position and looks as though he may struggle to avoid missing the cut here for the third year in a row. I just don't see why Five Dimes have him as such a strong favourite over Imada. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Toms tb Johnson +130 (L); Stroud tb Davis +120 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Lucas Glover to beat Jason Day +105 @ Five Dimes LOST by 2
Don't understand why Day is a large favourite over Glover. The momentum of his win last week (albeit unconvincing at the end) took him to an opening 66 and was two-under-par after six holes of his second round and in contention, but then he struggled home in three-over-par without recording another birdie and only made the cut by two shots. It would appear as if that win has caught with him and so it would take a big effort to rebound today. By contrast, Glover really found his form yesterday with a 65, but it was to be expected as he has a good record on this course - he has started the final round in the top-15 in each of the last three years - and he has been in good form - he finished 3rd in the Players Championship last time out. Round 4 play (2pts): Kyle Stanley to beat Lee Janzen +110 @ Five Dimes WON by 3
I'll take these odds to oppose Janzen who has missed the cut in eight out of his last eleven starts. He shot the low round of the day yesterday (63) and it is always difficult to follow up such a round, so I'll side with Stanley who has shot all three rounds in the 60s and has recorded three top-10 finishes in his last seven starts on the Nationwide Tour. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
|
