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1-3; -6.86pts (system plays: 8-10-3) Round 1 play (2pts): Jim Furyk to beat Rory McIlroy -105 @ 5Dimes LOST by 2
Backing Furyk for a good week after last week's DQ debacle. Not only had he shown good form coming into this event - 9th, 6th and 24th in his last three starts - but he has a very good record on this course - he has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two years here and opened with 66-65 in 2008 to be 5th after the second round, while last year he opened with 63-67 to lead after both the first and second rounds. McIlroy has never played on this course previously and is coming off a poor week at The Barclays. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Furyk tb Mahan -110 (L); Day tb Casey +100 (W); Goosen tb Scott +102 (T); Furyk tb Kuchar -105 (T)] Round 2 play (4pts): Jason Day to beat Ryan Palmer -147 @ Unibet WON by 5
Palmer was in an identical position last week - 3rd after the 1st round - and shot 74 to drop to 28th and given that he has finished ahead of Day just once in the last four months, I'd expect a similar reaction this week. Day has a good record when leading from the front - he has shot 65 and 68 when following the two previous occasions that he has been first round leader this year - and with him unlikely to be leading the event when he tees off this afternoon, I don't foresee a cautious round either. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Johnson Z tb Mahan -120 (L); Furyk tb Mahan -108 (L); Riley tb Romero -115 (L); Stricker tb McIlroy -125 (W); Casey tb Fowler -130 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Angel Cabrera to beat Andres Romero -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek, Carib and WSEX] LOST by 1
Opposing Romero, particularly as he is in 8th place after two rounds. He has not started the third round in the top-10 since the Northern Trust Open in the first week of February. In fact, he has not started any round in the top-10 on the PGA Tour since that event apart from two: he shot 76 to drop from 4th to 38th in the second round of the Quail Hollow Championship and he shot 75 to drop from 4th to 33rd in the Memorial Tournament. With a ranking of 178th (of 194) in Round 3 Scoring Average, it is easy to see why he has been struggling to earn money and points this year. He currently ranks 105th in the Money List so needs to make the most of this position to wrap up a Tour Card for next year and only just made it into this event in 100th (and last) place in the Fedex Cup Race; even with his current 8th place position, he is projected to rise only to 71st while only the top-70 progress to next week's event. That means added pressure and he is more prone than most to double-bogeys when only one could ruin the much-needed possibility of extending his regular season. He hasn't done well from this position all year and I can't see it happening under this added pressure. [unofficial rd3 system plays: De Jonge tb Moore +105 (L); Holmes tb Fowler +108 (W); Glover tb Howell -105 (W); Appleby tb Willis -118 (W); Johnson Z tb Mahan -105 (T); Micheel tb Willis +100 (W); Ogilvy tb Palmer +100 (W)] Round 4 play (4pts): Steve Stricker to beat Geoff Ogilvy -163 @ Paddy Power LOST by 5
Backing Stricker to finish with a good round and put himself within reach of victory. If he does, he may well be the #1 in the World Rankings in the next week or so. Obviously, he is playing extremely well - he hasn't had a bogey since the 3rd round of The Barclays - but this is more than just a purple patch of form - he ranks in the top-3 in all the main scoring and ranking categories on the PGA Tour. And his record of finishing 7th, 9th, 13th and 1st the last four years here suggests that there should be little surprise that he challenging for the victory on this course again. In terms of Ogilvy, he has played well on this course in three of his five visits, but his last top-10 finish was back in the season-opening SBS Championship. His putter has been hot and cold this week resulting in low and high scores, so he will need it to be hot again if he is challenge for this title. With his final round average at almost two shots higher than Stricker this year (and he ranks 142nd in this category on the PGA Tour), history suggests his putter will indeed need to be very hot if he is match Stricker today. [unofficial rd4 system play: Stricker tb Mickelson -120 (W); Stricker tb Donald -120 (L); Scott tb Ogilvy -119 (L); Stricker tb Kuchar -110 (T); Trahan tb Gillis -124 (L)] |
