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Round 1 play (2pts): Rod Pampling to beat Chad Campbell +105 @ Extrabet LOST by 1
Backing a very solid player at a decent price. Pampling hasn't missed a cut since September, finished 14th, 7th and 7th in his Australian events during the PGA Tour off-season and beat Cambell by five shots when he returned last week. In fact, in their last ten common events, Pampling has finished ahead of Campbell eight times, the only exceptions being two events in August. Even in their relative histories in this event, Campbell has finished ahead of Pampling only once at Torrey Pines and shot the lower 1st round score once (2004). Campbell played well in the Sony Open, but the value should be with Pampling in this matchup. Round 2 play (2pts): Jeff Overton to beat John Daly -137 @ Extrabet TIED
No-brainer to oppose Daly when he has no chance of making the cut when starting the 2nd round in 152nd place. He has been outside the top-140 on 17 occasions since 1997, has withdrawn four times and never shot better than 72 in the 2nd round. The last time that he was in this situation was the 2009 Buick Open: he was 149th after round 1 and on the Friday he shot 88! Round 3 play (2pts): Michael Sim to beat D.A. Points +110 @ Paddy Power WON by 4
Sim may find it difficult to follow up a 62, but there is surely good value here in opposing the co-leader who has only ever held the lead after 36 holes on the PGA Tour twice previously. Both those occasions were in 2006 and he fell to 6th and 13th after those third rounds. Sim had a record-breaking season on the Nationwide Tour, so it is no surprise that he is in contention so early into this PGA Tour season. |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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