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0-2; -8.20pts (system plays: 1-3-1) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (4pts): Brett Quigley to beat Michael Letzig -105 @ Bet365 LOST by 1
Letzig is certainly a player to look for in the '1st round leader' markets where he is sure to be a big price - yesterday was the fifth time in his last twelve starts that he has finished the first round in the top-5. However, he has not done particularly well from this position in the past - his subsequent 2nd round scores have been 81 (dropped to 88th), 74 (33rd), 70 (11th), and 71 (19th). With the pressure of converting these chances becoming ever greater - he is 145th in the Money List - I can't see him converting this chance when he has failed to do often in the past. [unofficial rd2 system play: Clark tb Fowler -105 (L); Clark tb Van Pelt +105 (T)] No round 3 plays. Round 4 play (4pts): John Mallinger to beat Alex Prugh +105 @ SkyBet LOST by 5
Prugh clearly likes playing on the West Coast - he looks set to retain his Tour playing rights for 2011 purely on the back of two top-5 finishes and a top-10 finish in January/February. He has failed to record a top-20 finish since and has missed six of his last eight cuts. Little wonder that Mallinger has finished ahead of him in seven of their last eight common events. As such, I'll back a player who finished 3rd in the Wyndham Championship against one who has been playing so poorly, needed an eagle two at the 17th yesterday hole to get into his current position and will be playing under the pressure of being in the final group today. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Van Pelt tb Fowler -110 (L); Van Pelt tb Mediate -163 (W); Mallinger tb Warren -133 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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