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3-1; +6.10pts (system plays: 2-3-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Kenny Perry to beat Ben Crane +100 @ 5Dimes LOST by 9
Any player that had missed just one cut on the PGA Tour in the last 23 months is worth backing in matchups. Perry has been playing well, but struggling on the greens ever since his putter broke on the putting green just before he teed off in the opening event of the year. It has meant that he has made a lot of cuts, but not really challenged for titles. However, he felt much happier with the Bobby Grace putter that he used over the weekend in his last PGA Tour event - he shot 65-69 when using it - and that augurs well for his pledge this week: for every birdie that he makes, he will donate $2,000 to the families of the West Virginia mining disaster in April. That will ensure that he is both fully motivated for this event and receives a great deal of crowd support. It has been over three months since Crane shot a lower 1st round score than Perry and under these circumstances, a lot of people will be hoping that he will need to shoot a very low score tomorrow to end that run. [unofficial rd1 system play: Perry tb Pettersson -111 (L)] Round 2 play (4pts): Jeff Overton to beat Brendon De Jonge -140 @ Carib WON by 6
With four top-3 finishes in the last 14 weeks, there is no-one else in such form as Overton in this field. De Jonge has been playing well, but nowhere near Overton's level and that was also clear yesterday when De Jonge played in the par-3s well, but was average from tee-to-green, while Overton was solid throughout and would have held the overnight lead, but for a bogey on the last hole. Overton will be comfortable in his current top-3 position, De Jonge not: he has started the 2nd round in the top-10 three times since the start of last season and shot 75-75-73 in the following round. His recent top-20 finishes have all been from slow starts. [unofficial rd2 system play: Sutherland tb Snedeker -130 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Graham DeLaet to beat John Daly -105 @ 5Dimes WON by 1
Rather surprised that Daly has been priced up as the favorite in this matchup. DeLaet has the greater incentive to earn every dollar that he can in order to retain his 2011 playing rights - he is 116th in the Money List - while Daly is not exactly famous to trying hard when he, like DeLaet, is 59th and eleven shots off the pace. That is also shown in Daly's 3rd round scoring average on Tour: 71.60 and 160th in the standings. By contrast, DeLaet is an impressive 8th in the 3rd round scoring average rankings with an average score of 69.20 in Saturday play this year. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Snedeker tb Riley -110 (W); Leonard tb Curtis +105 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): Jimmy Walker to beat Jonathan Byrd +105 @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and WSEX [also available @ Carib] WON by 3
Like the odds in this matchup. Byrd has been struggling this year - from 67th in the Money List last year, he now ranks 139th and in clear danger of losing his Tour Card for next year unless he can at least maintain this top-10 position. However, his record from this position has not been good recently: in the last three years he has started the final round in the top-10 on 12 occasions, but never broken 70. That is not such a problem with Walker who finished 3rd from a similar position in the Texas Open and has won in West Virginia (2007 Pete Dye Classic). [unofficial rd4 system play: Couch tb Bettencourt +130 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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