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2-1; +1.60pts (system plays: 3-6-2) No round 1 plays. Round 2 play (2pts): Rickie Fowler to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Bet365 LOST by 3
Fowler hit it straighter than Baddeley yesterday, hit more greens, hit it closer on average to the pin, and scrambled for par better than Baddeley yesterday. Clearly Baddeley's putter saved him yesterday and enabled him to shoot the same score as Fowler. Given that his best finish on the PGA Tour this year is only 50th, it appears as though Baddeley will need his putter to keep working well to save him again today. That should mean that the value is firmly with Fowler in this matchup. [unofficial rd2 system play: Clark tb Weekley -140 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Woody Austin to beat Stuart Appleby -111 @ Bet365 WON by 6
Surprised to see Appleby as high as 4th after 36 holes. He hasn't played here since he missed the cut in 1998 and he has missed six of ten cuts this year (best-finish 30th). At least Austin had a top-10 finish last month, but it is particularly because of his course form that makes his current top-10 position predictable: he has been 32nd or better in seven of the last eight years here, including a memorable playoff loss to Davis Love in 2003. If his top-10 position is predictable, so is his maintenance of that top-10 position for at least one more round: in the last 12 occasions that he has started the weekend in the top-10, he has shot a 3rd round score in the 60s on 11 of those 12 occasions. Naturally, he has remained in the top-10 after 54 holes in 11 of those 12 occasions. He is a good 'momentum' player before the pressure builds on the final day. [unofficial rd3 system plays: Henry tb Owen -115 (W); Austin tb Davis -120 (L); Molder tb Weekley +100 (L); Austin tb Pettersson +105 (W); Choi tb Villegas +100 (W); Molder tb Campbell -105 (L); Micheel tb Barnes +120 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): Heath Slocum to beat Boo Weekley +105 @ Pinnacle [also available @ FiveDimes, Stan James, Bet365 and WSEX] WON by 1
If golf courses were 17 holes in length, Slocum would be the clear leader in this event ... but they aren't and he has taken double-bogey on the last hole in each of the last two rounds. However, he is still only two shots off the lead and, in his own words, he is playing great and likes his chances today. If he can continue to play as well as over those first 17 holes, there is no reason why he can't win. By contrast, Weekley is facing a lot more media pressure as he attempts to win for the third time in four years, but in his post-round press conference he sounded downbeat about his game, saying that he wasn't hitting the ball solidly and couldn't control it in the wind. With the wind forecast to also be a factor today, the advantage should be with Slocum's better ball control and so that represents value at plus odds. [unofficial rd4 system plays: Laird tb Leishman -105 (T); Austin tb Barnes +102 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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