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2-1; +2.06pts Round 1 play (2pts): Lee Westwood to beat Graeme McDowell -105 @ Five Dimes and WSEX [also available @ Stan James and Pinnacle] LOST by 1
Not sure why Five Dimes and WSEX make McDowell the favourite in this matchup (Pinnacle favour Westwood slightly and Stan James very strongly). This is a matchup between the #4 and the #49 in the World Rankings and their h2h record supports such a decisive difference in their rankings: Westwood has finished ahead of McDowell in 13 of their last 15 common events. With both players making their debut on this course, there is little to point to favouritism on McDowell's part. [unofficial rd1 system plays: Villegas tb Casey +120 (W); Westwood tb Casey +115 (W)] Round 2 play (4pts): Vaughn Taylor to beat Oliver Wilson +105 @ Bet365 TIED
Backing Taylor to continue the run of form that earned him a 7th place finish last week - he currently lies 19th - but largely this is a play against Wilson at good odds. He has competed in 12 PGA Tour and WGC events, but has finished the first round in the top-10 only once, so to be 3rd after 18 holes of a PGA Tour event will be an unsual and nervous situation for him. He fell back from 2 shots off the lead to 6 shots after the 2nd round of last year's CA Championship; I'd expect him to do the same today. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Herron tb Teater -130 (L); Ames tb Romero -145 (W); Casey tb Holmes -114 (W); Curtis tb Klauk -120 (W); Weir tb Holmes -120 (W); McCarron tb Wilkinson -130 (V); Estes tb Singh J +115 (L); Watson tb Dufner -110 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Brett Quigley to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ Bet365 WON by 4 [unofficial rd3 system plays: Every tb Kelly -105 (W); Every tb Weir +138 (W)] Round 4 play (2pts): George McNeill to beat Matt Every +108 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 2
No value when the line was at best -103, but there is now. McNeill has started the final round in the top-5 three times since October and has finished 2nd, 2nd and 5th, shooting 67-67-69; Every has started the final round on PGA Tour in the top-5 twice this year and has finished 15th and 8th, shooting 72-72. He may have had a very good year on the Nationwide Tour last year, but he has yet to finish off an event at the highest tier. In fact, he has broken par in the final round just once this year. |
