18-Hole Match Picks - PGA Tour

Tipster: Stanley

Odds: 2-Balls

Odds: 3-Balls

3-1; +3.96pts  [system plays: 4-6-5]

Round 1 play (4pts):

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Martin Kaymer -101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Five Dimes, Stan James and WSEX]  LOST by 3
After his 3rd place finish in the CA Championship, Kaymer appears to be in the better form of the two, but Ogilvy has certainly shown some recent glimpses of the form that netted him the SBS Championship in January. In his last outing in the Transitions Championship, he thought that he had missed the cut and so flew home to Scottsdale, Arizona, only to find that he would be playing at the weekend and so flew back to Florida and shot 65 in the 3rd round. The lack of sleep caught up with him in the final round as he finished 28th, but that is an indication that he can play well for 18 holes at least. And then there is his record in this event: four top-10 finishes in six attempts on which two have been on this week's course: he finished 2nd two years ago and held the lead after 36 and 54 holes last year only to fall back to 6th in the final round. The course clearly suits Ogilvy's strength - putting - as well as being good preparation for next week.

Round 2 play (4pts):

Omar Uresti to beat James Driscoll -110 @ Five Dimes  WON by 1
No surprise to see a much better performance than lately from Uresti who was born, educated and still lives in Texas. He has finished in the top-45 in six out of last eight attempts in this event. However, it is much more of a surprise to see Driscoll in 3rd place as he has only made two cuts all year and is 3-for-3 in missed cuts in this event. Even a look at his key 1st round stat wouldn't suggest that he would hold such a lofty leaderbord position: 41st in greens in regulation (Uresti was 5th), so I can't see him remaining in contention for another 18 holes.

[unofficial rd2 system plays: Donald tb McIlroy +101 (L); Crane tb Yang +100 (W); Baddeley tb Lamely -135 (T); Campbell tb Schwartzel -120 (T); Mickelson tb Kuchar -150 (L); Watson tb Fowler -150 (W); Points tb Hayes -145 (T); Donald tb Schwartzel -111 (L); Ogilvy tb McIlroy -120 (T); Mickelson tb Scott -140 (L)]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Vaughn Taylor to beat Kevin Stadler -104 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Five Dimes, Stan James and WSEX]  WON by 4
I'd always look to oppose Stadler at the weekend. He has started the third round in the top-5 three times in the last three seasons and has finished 56th, 28th and 10th. He may be gettig better, but I'd much rather back a player who has only missed two greens in regulation so far this week.

[unofficial rd3 system play: Schwartzel tb Fowler -113 (W)]

Round 4 play (2pts):

Justin Rose to beat Chad Campbell -110 @ The Greek [also available @ Bet365]  WON by 2
Campbell has clearly been the better player from tee-to-green this week, ranking in the top-20 for DD, DA, GIR and SC, but his putting frustrations could spill over to the rest of his game if he continues to miss chances and not close the six-shot gap to the leaders. However, this is primarily a play on Rose: this is a good setup to back him. He may not be the best player when in the lead during the final round, but otherwise he is one of the best players to back on Sunday. Last year, only Tiger Woods averaged a lower final round scoring average than Rose, while Campbell averaged over 1.4 shots higher. I fully expect Rose to finish the day higher on the leaderboard than he started it.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Harrington tb Schwartzel -128 (L); Rollins tb Estes -120 (W); Harrington tb Westwood -110 (L); Scott tb Watson -115 (T)]