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4-0; +10.44pts (system plays: 3-3-0) Round 1 play (2pts): Kenny Perry to beat Rickie Fowler -115 @ Carib [also available @ SkyBet, William Hill and Paddy Power] WON by 2
Fowler was surprised to be informed yesterday that he had earned a place in his first Major at St Andrews next week; he had been expecting to need a top-5 finish this week to get in as anything other than an alternate. He admitted in his post-round interview yesterday that he probably wouldn't have played this week had he known last month that he was playing in the British Open and that "obviously we want to save some energy for next week", so with rain forecast for tomorrow, it may not be too much of a surprise if he didn't expend too much energy if he gets off to a slow start this week. Given that he has averaged 74.50 in wet conditions, a slow start looks likely and he should struggle to beat Perry who was the winner here two years ago. Round 2 play (4pts): Rod Pampling to beat David Duval -145 @ Five Dimes WON by 5
Not entirely clear how Duval managed to finish the day in 18th place on a day of very low scoring: he ranked 126th in driving distance, 135th in driving accuracy and 122nd in greens in regulation. It is not as though he has been in good form recently, so it would appear unlikely that his putter will save him again today. Pampling was much more solid from tee-to-green, apart from a double-bogey on the 5th hole, and looks far more likely to still be in the top-20 at the end of the day. [unofficial rd2 system plays: Woodland tb Delhoussaye -120 (W); Jones tb Chopra -130 (W); De Jonge tb Chalmers -122 (W); Wi tb Couch -165 (L)] Round 3 play (2pts): Chris Couch to beat Jay Williamson +100 @ SkyBet [available generally] WON by 2
Was expecting better odds than this for Couch given that Williamson was 2nd here two years ago and Couch has missed his last five cuts. However, whereas Williamson has been much more consistent than Couch he still ranks 145th in the Money List whereas Couch is 72nd. The reason is clear: Williamson has been making cuts but has been unable to convert his pre-weekend positions into money-earning finishes - he ranks 166th in 3rd round scoring average; Couch has not made as many cuts, but, when he has, he has converted those chances - he ranks 7th in 3rd round scoring average. The pressure is clearly on Williamson to make the most of his current position before he loses his Tour Card for 2011 and this should result in a good chance for victory for Couch. [unofficial rd3 system play: Goydos tb Maggert -110 (L)] Round 4 play (2pts): Shaun Micheel to beat Matt Jones +122 @ Pinnacle [available generally] WON by 3
I don't understand why everyone (bar Extrabet) makes Jones such a large favourite in this match. He ranks outside the top-100 in final round scoring average (Micheel is 43rd), he admitted in his post-round interview that he didn't play particularly well yesterday, unlike the first two days, and he has the pressure of trying to at least finish in the top-5 to qualify for next week's British Open, only his 2nd Major. By contrast, Micheel only missed one green in regulation yesterday and ranks 2nd in greens in regulation this week. In fact, he ranks in the top-25 in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, putting average and putts per round ... even including Stricker, whose driving has been indifferent, no-one else in this field has been in such control of all aspects of their game this week. And then there is the motivational angle: Micheel's mother is battling cancer and while she has been responding well to chemotherapy in the last couple of weeks, the family has some good news a few days ago when the insurance company confirmed that they would arrange for a CAT scan and a PET scan next week. Jones will have to play today;s round under pressure, whereas Micheel has other issues driving him to a good performance this week and I can't see him stumbling in the final round today. [unofficial rd4 system play: Maggert tb Goydos +101 (L)] |
NOTES
There will be only one play per round - my 'best bet' - and
these will typically be 2pts and cover only '2-ball'
matches rather than '3-ball' matches. Where my analysis points to a
particular mismatch that is not reflected in the odds, higher stakes may be
advised, up to a maximum of 6pts.
Note that '2pts' represents 'to win
2pt' if the player is odds-on (negative in moneyline terms or less than 2.0 in decimal odds) and represents
'2pts staked' if the player is odds-against (positive in moneyline terms or at least 2.0 in decimal odds).
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